The future was bright for the Montreal Canadiens and the possibility of regression candidates in 2024-25 was nothing to worry about. It looked like they could afford one more trip to the bottom of the standings to pick up another top prospect and await the arrival of Ivan Demidov in 2025-26. However, their acquisition of Patrik Laine this past week has made people wonder if it’s time to start considering the Canadiens a Stanley Cup contender.
Most people would say the Canadiens’ chances of being a Stanley Cup contender are still a few years away. Giving some of their young players a contending experience wouldn’t be bad. Most players on their roster haven’t played meaningful games past the holiday break in their NHL careers. The prospect of playing important games in the second half of the season should excite Canadiens fans. A way to ensure that happens is for the following two players to have good seasons and avoid any regression from 2023-24.
Time and space running out for Mike Matheson
The depth of the Canadiens’ defensive unit is no secret. They have freed up some space after trading Jordan Harris and Jonathan Kovacevic during the offseason. However, they will have many left-handed defensemen competing for playing time. Mike Matheson, Arber Xhekaj, Kaiden Guhle, Lane Hutson, and Adam Engstrom can all play full-time for the Canadiens. You may argue they can move one of the lefties to their off-side, but there isn’t much room. David Savard, Justin Barron, Jayden Struble, David Reinbacher, and Logan Mailloux are their options on the right side.
The Canadiens’ rebuilding efforts have largely been a success, and it looks like they’ll be a top team shortly. The obvious move could be to trade Matheson and Savard to lock down a core of eight young defensemen. Montreal’s recent Patrik Laine acquisition could signal they are trying to contend sooner than we thought, which likely eliminates their rush to trade either of these defensemen.
The problem for the Canadiens is that Matheson’s trade value will only go down from here. Matheson increased his career-high in points by 28 this past season, but the advanced numbers say he had a worse year than normal.
Matheson’s Corsi was ten points lower than his career-high and three points lower than 2022-23. It was an abysmal 43%, which you may think is because of how bad the Canadiens were last season. The issue is it was lower than expected relative to the team’s results, which tells us his defensive play contributed to the Canadiens being as bad as they were.
Your initial thought without looking at those numbers could be to keep Matheson to try and contend. The real thought should be if they’re better off handing the keys to Lane Hutson as the new offensive lefty.
Christian Dvorak’s time with the Canadiens has been a bust
Christian Dvorak is a controversial Canadiens player to label as a regression candidate. The truth is that Dvorak has been a disappointment since putting on the historic jersey. Dvorak had two 100+ point seasons in the Ontario Hockey League after the Arizona Coyotes drafted him in the second round in 2014. His expectations and potential went through the roof, which he never fully lived up to in Arizona.
The Coyotes signed Dvorak to a six-year, $26.7 million contract in 2019, but traded him to the Canadiens before the 2021-22 season. Dvorak tallied 33 points in 56 games, which was an acceptable number but not what the Canadiens were looking for from their hopeful second-line center. Dvorak regressed even further in 2022-23 with 28 points in 64 games, before hitting rock bottom with nine points in 30 games last season.
The question is whether Dvorak can remain healthy long enough to play a full season next year. The other question is if the Canadiens can find a place for him in the lineup. Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky, Laine, Kirby Dach, and Alex Newhook will likely create the top six. They also must find places for Joshua Roy, Brendan Gallagher, Josh Anderson, Joel Armia, and Jake Evans. Dvorak isn’t the type of player you put on the fourth line, but that possibility looks very likely.
How good of a season can Dvorak possibly have on the fourth line? He will likely be in the middle of players like a struggling Anderson and Alex Barre-Boulet until Rafael Harvey-Pinard returns. Anderson may have been even more disappointing than Dvorak last season and Barre-Boulet has been a career minor leaguer. The probability of Dvorak improving instead of regressing is very unlikely.
