This win was much less jarring than Tuesday’s. On Tuesday, the Cubs offense didn’t kick in until late, but the bullpen coasted to an easy victory once they did. In this one, the offense arrived a little earlier. But the bullpen did their best to give away the lead. What could have been another easy victory ended up being a nail biter and going down to the last batter.
The disconcerting thing about this one was that the four runs allowed by the bullpen were allowed by Mark Leiter Jr. and Tyson Miller. On the Leiter front, he’s going through a phase where he is off. We’ve seen this before and it can take a little while for him to get locked in. That is a fairly normal part of the ebb and flow of players across all sports. They get locked in and they get out of whack. Stardom and Superstardom emerge for players when they can extend that locked in and minimize the out of whack. Leiter produces at a star level when he’s locked in. But his out of whack can linger and keeps him from ascending to that star level.
On the Tyson Miller front, I felt this bump in the road needs to speak to both groups tugging on Miller figuratively in different directions. There is one group ready to install him as closer because he’s strung together some strong outings. Miller was acquired as a bit of a band-aid and was thought to be a decent, though split exploitable, pitcher. He’s been excellent as a Cub. This is a reminder that increasing the leverage for a player is a process. It doesn’t happen overnight.
At the same time, this was a single bad result. Tyson was dropped into a really tight spot where any failure was going to be amplified. He had the worst possible result. But it was one failure. This isn’t an indictment and doesn’t mean that he can’t continue to be used in higher leverage spots. So to one faction of you, I say pump the brakes a little and give the process time, and to the other faction of you, I say don’t lose all hope. One bad outcome doesn’t spoil the whole process.
Aside from that one bad inning out of the bullpen, and the tightrope walk that was the rest of the game after the grand slam, this was a pleasing win. The Cubs have now played competitive baseball in all six games to start this homestand. A split of six games is certainly disappointing. It doesn’t take a massive been in sequencing across the six games to find four or five wins. But even .500 ball is better than what this team had been producing.
The starting pitching has been somewhere between good and excellent in all six games, as it has been through the vast majority of games this year. The offense was held in check last weekend, but was a factor across all three of these games with the Giants. Again, just what we’ve seen all year. The offense produces in bunches and then disappears. I could make a similar statement with the Cubs offense to what I wrote above about Leiter. The difference between good and great is extending the productive periods and minimizing the unproductive ones. This Cubs offense collectively hasn’t been able to do that and so the net result is decidedly mediocre.
The reason the pitching staff has held up way more consistently than the offense? Because the pitching staff has been able to find significantly more depth in their contribution. The Cubs have gotten any kind of sustained offensive success from only four or five players. Very few teams can keep 13 guys producing with limited playing time available for bench players. But ideally, a team would get significant contributions from 8-10 players, even if one or two of those players are bench players.
Instead of dwelling on all of the things this team isn’t, let’s find three positives.
- I think it all starts with Kyle Hendricks. He was excellent on Wednesday afternoon, turning back the clock several years. He came up just shy of six innings and allowed only one run that was a little bit of a fluke.
- Ian Happ stays red hot with two more hits, a double and a solo homer.
- Michael Busch just keeps quietly chugging along. A single, a double and a walk. He scored a run. He’s been so quietly excellent that I don’t think a lot of people realize the level of production he’s had.
Game 75, June 19: Cubs 6, Giants 5 (36-39)
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Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Kyle Hendricks (.213). 5⅔ IP, 20 batters, 2 H, BB, R, 8 K (W 1-4)
- Hero: Colten Brewer (.163). IP, 5 batters, 2 BB (Sv)
- Sidekick: Ian Happ (.153). 2-4, HR, 2B, RBI, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Cody Bellinger (-.173). 1-4, R, SB, DP
- Goat: Tyson Miller (-.103). ⅓ IP, 2 batters, H, R
- Kid: Christopher Morel (-.094). 0-3, BB, R
WPA Play of the Game: With runners on second and third and two outs, Colten Brewer retired Patrick Bailey to end the game. (.202)
*Giants Play of the Game: With the bases loaded and no outs in the third inning, Spencer Bivens got Cody Bellinger to ground into a 1-2-3 double play, preserving the scoreless tie a little longer. (.165)
Rizzo Award Cumulative Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Shōta Imanaga +15
- Michael Busch +12
- Ben Brown +11
- Jameson Taillon +9
- Ian Happ +8
- Adbert Alzolay/Miguel Amaya -10
- Christopher Morel -12
- Nico Hoerner/Kyle Hendricks -13
*Hendricks catches second to last, Brewer crosses into positive territory (+1), Happ creeps a little closer to the top. Bellinger drops down several spots (+3), Miller clings to positive territory (+1), Morel nudges towards the bottom.
Up Next: I’m going to guess one of the treasured occurrences of the baseball season is a mid-homestand off day. The Cubs get one Thursday before opening a series with the Mets on Friday.
Shōta Imanaga (7-1, 1.89) continues the quirky start to his big league career, facing his 14th different team in 14 starts. I find this particularly interesting because there is so much talk about his unusual pitch mix as a left-hander. I remain very interesting at how he will do when a team sees him for the second time and if it makes any difference.
I don’t have to introduce the guy on the other side. Veteran lefty Jose Quintana (2-5, 4.98, 72⅓ IP) is still hanging around, now four seasons removed from his last as a Cub. He’s had a whole lot of three runs in six innings type of starts and one particularly unsightly visit here to Tampa where he recorded eight outs while allowing eight runs. But he can still sneak up on you from time to time. He just held the Padres to two hits and two walks over six innings in his last start.
