LAST SEASON
The NHL has grown into a league with 32 franchises, a two-team increase in the last eight seasons, which means before then, more than half the teams would qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and now, exactly half make it. You following me, camera guy? That’s math.
I’m telling you this because if I said you could lose 13 coin flips in a row, you’d respond with that being nearly impossible. Yet somehow, the Buffalo Sabres have missed the playoffs in 13 consecutive seasons, which is not only the longest active drought, but the longest in NHL history, three worse than the Florida Panthers of the early 2000s and the post-2005 lockout Edmonton Oilers. It’s not just bad, it’s impressive how bad the Sabres have been. They’re currently tied with the NFL’s New York Jets for the longest active drought in North American sports.
Last season, the Sabres finished 39-37-6 with 84 points, sixth in the Atlantic Division and seven points behind the No. 2 Wildcard spot in the Eastern Conference. A middling start to the season turned mediocre by the end of 2024 with a 15-19-4 record, third-worst in the East at that point. A winning record the rest of the way wasn’t enough to dig them out of their hole, and by the time they reached the March 8 NHL Trade Deadline, they had moved Kyle Okposo, Erik Johnson, Devin Cooley and Casey Mittlestadt (more on that last one, later).
After a 2022-23 regular season where they fell one point short of a playoff spot and looked to be on the upswing, to call this most-recent campaign a disappointment would be an understatement.
KEY ADDITIONS AND DEPARTURES
Additions
Ryan McLeod, C
Sam Lafferty, RW
Jason Zucker, LW
Beck Malenstyn, LW
Nicolas Aube-Kubel, RW
Dennis Gilbert, D
James Reimer, G
Departures
Matthew Savoie, C (EDM)
Zemgus Girgensons, LW (TBL)
Eric Robinson, LW (CAR)
Victor Olofsson, LW (VGK)
Jeff Skinner, RW (EDM)
Tyson Jost, F (CAR)
Riley Stillman, D (CAR)
Jeremy Davies, D (OTT)
Eric Comrie, G (WPG)
OFFENSE
It’s easy to forget how good the Sabres were in 2022-23, when they were third in the league in scoring. Last season, they finished 22nd with a 50-goal drop from the year prior and only two players in Tage Thompson and J.J. Peterka hitting the 50-point mark. Not one single player could score 30 goals.
I hate to admit it, but thanks to my damn Western New York cousins, I watched more Sabres games than I should have in 2023-24. It was an exercise in futility watching Buffalo’s power play, ranked 27th at 16.6 percent, another steep drop from the top-10 man advantage they had the previous season. It’s hard to see how that can improve, but to be fair to defenseman Rasmus Dahlin, who finished with 20 power-play points last year, the combination of him plus potential bounceback seasons for Thompson and Alex Tuch could boost their power play to where it once was.
Forward Jeff Skinner, who scored 35 times and finished with 82 points in 2022-23, took such a step back offensively – 24 goals and 46 points – the club bought out the final three years of his eight-year, $72 million contract in June. They decided they would rather pay $1.4 million in dead cap next season, $4.4 million in 2025-26 and $6.4 million the year after. That’s what the Sabres think of him.
I don’t know if they think they’ll get scoring from Ryan McLeod or Sam Lafferty – their combined 25 goals was one more than Skinner’s 24 – but they better be sure they’re going to supplement their offense from somewhere.
DEFENSE
One of the frustrating things for the Sabres in 2023-24 was how their defense actually held its own for most of the season, only allowing 244 goals, 11th in the league. Dahlin continued improving his game, posting a career-high 54.6 percent even-strength corsi, expanding his offensive repertoire and even throwing a few extra hits to unsuspecting forwards. One thing we’ll look for next season is if he can ramp up his production to the levels we saw in 2022-23, or even higher. He may not be the juggernaut that Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes are, but there’s always room on the podium for a third.
I think the biggest X-factor for the Sabres and their blueline next season is Bowen Byram, acquired last March in a one-for-one deal with the Colorado Avalanche in exchange for Casey Mittelstadt. The 23-year-old won a Stanley Cup with the Avalanche in 2021 as a rookie, averaging more than 19 minutes a game in 20 playoff contests. He’ll likely be the left-handed partner for Dahlin, and I predict the duo will be one of hockey’s best defensive pairings in 2024-25.
Owen Power, the 2021 No. 1 overall pick, has shown incredible growth in his first two full professional seasons. There an efficiency to his game that goes undetected; I want to use the word unremarkable, but that would come off as an insult, and that’s not what I’m trying to convey. The Mississauga native is deceivingly quick, but his 6-foot-6 frame allows him to get to spots without having to leg out full strides. He’s almost always in the right spot, and he hasn’t even played 200 career games. It’s seldom that the top pick lacks real “flash” in their game, but Power doesn’t need it.
If I could nitpick one thing I’d like for Power to work on, it’s adding a little snarl to his game. Maybe it’s unfair to expect a big man like him to have an edge, but it wouldn’t hurt to see a cross-check or a slash every once in a while. Well, it would hurt the other guy, but you know what I mean.
One player to keep an eye on is Henri Jokiharju, who re-signed with the Sabres on a one-year deal in July. The 2017 first-round pick led the club in plus-minus but was in the bottom half of their possession charts. Slotted in on the second or third pair, the right-handed defender could wind up being a valuable trade asset if the Sabres struggle out of the gate. Whether or not there’s a long-term deal at the end of the season is up to him.
GOALTENDING
Other than having the most fun name to pronounce in hockey, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was one of the best parts of the Sabres’ 2023-24 season, going 27-22-4 with a .910 save percentage, 2.57 goals-against-average and a 10.1 goals saved above average. On nearly any given night, Luukkonen gave Buffalo a chance to win. The club signed him to a five-year, $23.7 million contract extension in July, and if he continues to develop as well as he did last season, it’ll look like a steal in no time.
Meanwhile, the team inked James Reimer to a one-year deal in free agency, providing them what could be a semi-interesting battle for the backup role in the preseason between him and Devon Levi, who still has one year left on his deal. Reimer may have the upper-hand with his veteran experience, but in the modern NHL, having three goalies on your roster isn’t out of the ordinary.
COACHING
After missing the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season, Don Granato was fired after the 2023-24 season. You know that line from The Who’s “Won’t Get Fooled Again”? Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. The Sabres must have heard that line and thought, “Eureka!”
Buffalo would hire Lindy Ruff, who coached the club between 1997 and 2013, winning the Jack Adams Award in 2006 and taking them to the Stanley Cup Final in 1999 and four Eastern Conference Finals during his 15 seasons with the team. Since then, he’s coached both the Dallas Stars and New Jersey Devils, finding little to no success during that time.
Multiple things can be true at once: With more than 850 regular-season wins, fourth on the all-time NHL list, Ruff is without a doubt one of the most successful coaches of his era. However, over the last two decades, he’s struggled to get the most out of his lineup. The last time his teams got out of the second round, George W. Bush was the U.S. president and a 19-year-old Rhianna was topping the charts with “Umbrella.”
Sometimes teams make the safe, comfortable choice when hiring a coach. That’s why there’s a passing lane on the road, so others can move ahead of you.
ROOKIES
Isak Rosen was the Sabres’ other first-round pick in 2021 and has held his own in his first two seasons with the AHL’s Rochester Americans. After posting a respectable 14 goals and 37 points in 2022-23, he stormed out of the gates last season, scoring five times in 10 games and winding up with 20 goals while adding 30 assists for 50 points, tied for the team lead. Some think Rosen will be back in Rochester next season, but for a Sabres squad that’s desperate for offense, the 21-year-old Rosen might play himself into some games in Buffalo.
The other young gun whom I think could make this team is Jiri Kulich, the Sabres’ other first-round pick from 2022. He posted back-to-back seasons with 20ish goals and 40ish points in the AHL, most recently leading the Americans with 27 goals in just 57 regular-season games. Only turning 20 last April, Kulich still has plenty of time to develop, and a team like Buffalo who already has a lot of cookies doesn’t mind letting a few cook a little longer in the oven. However, just like Rosen, their ability to produce points could force Ruff and co. to make like The Bad News Bears and “let them play.”
BURNING QUESTIONS
1. Is Kevyn Adams on the hot seat? When a general manager fires a coach (or two), you’ll hear fans and pundits say something along the lines of, “well, they’ve used their bullets,” meaning they’ve running out of options before they’re the next to go. Sabres’ GM Kevyn Adams fired Ralph Krueger in March 2021, replacing him with the assistant in Granato, whom he relieved of his duties last April. With two bullets now gone, and Ruff potentially being the last coaching hire of Adams’ tenure, Buffalo needs to make the playoffs, or at the very least compete for one come springtime if he wants to remain the architect of this club.
2. Can Alex Tuch and Tage Thompson hit it big again? After Tuch and Thompson scored 79 and 94 points, respectively, in 2022-23, they each took steps back last season. Assign it to an off year, bad coaching, no juice in the tank, bad pucks, whatever cliche guys use in the weeks between training camp and opening night, but if the Sabres want any chance at success in 2024-25, these two need to step up. Is it unfair to place so much on the shoulders of Tuch and Thompson? Maybe, but like Gord once said, no one’s interested in something you didn’t do.
3. Well, can they make the playoffs? I mean, sure, they can. Dahlin and Power will take another step in their respective developments, the team has more than $8 million in cap space to add through the season, a newly paid starting goalie and a fresh tank of “new coach fuel,” which somehow rockets every team into the playoffs. At some point, in a league where half the teams make the playoffs, it has to be your turn. Right? Right?! Prove me wrong, kids. Prove me wrong.
PREDICTION
Again, I love a lot of players on this team, but buying out Skinner and not sufficiently replacing his scoring just isn’t good enough. The Atlantic Division has too much talent to secure one of the top three spots, and I can’t envision the Sabres being that much better than some of the teams in the Metropolitan.
They have the ingredients for moves to be made (picks, prospects, cap space), but unless we see four lines and three pairings worth of hockey players having career years, it feels like they’re going to fall short, yet again. I’ll concede they hit the 90-point mark, but it will be in the low ’90s, well short of even the No. 2 Wildcard spot.
