The New Orleans Saints have undergone massive changes this offseason, most notably at head coach and quarterback.
But the excitement of fresh beginnings is dulled by the reality of the team's situation. The Saints aren't expected to be very good this fall. Only one team (Browns) has a lower projected win total with organized team activities (OTAs) underway.
Below, we examine New Orleans' outlook for the 2025 season and why it could be a long one in the Big Easy.
Projected win total: 5.5 (BetMGM)
Outlook: The Saints shouldn't be as bad as they are. No team with running back Alvin Kamara, wide receiver Chris Olave, linebacker Demario Davis and safety Tyrann Mathieu should struggle as much as New Orleans has, and yet things are bleak entering 2025 coming off a 5-12 season.
The team's biggest question is at quarterback, where rookie Tyler Shough and second-year veteran Spencer Rattler are embroiled in arguably the league's worst QB competition.
Shough, 25, is a seven-year college football veteran. He has decent intangibles, but injury concerns and his ability to handle NFL pressure are concerns.
Meanwhile, the Saints averaged 12.3 points per game in Rattler's six starts last season, going 0-6.
First-year head coach Kellen Moore has his work cut out for him as he builds his offense. The Saints lack depth behind Kamara and Olave, and the offensive line has questions despite the front office's investments.
The team has used its past two first-round picks on tackles Taliese Fuaga and Kelvin Banks. If New Orleans is going to surprise people, they must live up to their draft status, as must 2022 first-rounder Trevor Penning, who could move to guard to make room for the two more recent first-round additions.
The offensive-minded Moore might be creative enough to muster more offensive production, but the defense could be a concern as it shifts to a 3-4 alignment under defensive coordinator Brandon Staley.
The Saints had one of the worst defensive lines last year, and the unit is likely to struggle again this year. New Orleans ranked 31st against the run in 2024, allowing 2,404 yards (141.4 yards per game) and 4.9 yards per carry.
Rising third-year pro Bryan Bresee, the team's 2023 first-round pick, is one of several young players who will be tasked with turning around the unit, and that could lead to growing pains.
New Orleans dealt veteran cornerback Marshon Lattimore to the Washington Commanders at last year's deadline, leaving 2022 second-round pick Alontae Taylor and 2024 second-rounder Kool-Aid McKinstry as two of the team's top cornerbacks.
The Saints will rely on their veteran safeties, Mathieu and 2025 free-agent signee Justin Reid, to provide stability to the young secondary. But New Orleans lacks a shutdown corner with Lattimore gone, exposing the back-end of the defense to lapses in coverage.
Issues in the secondary could be masked by a strong pass-rush, but the Saints don't have that, either.
It's possible that Chase Young, the former No. 2 overall pick and 2020 Associated Press Defensive Rookie of the Year, finally breaks through with a monster season. At 26, he's still young enough to live up to his potential. The Saints could certainly use more than the 5.5 sacks he contributed last season.
Our take: New Orleans wasn't very good with recently retired quarterback Derek Carr, who put up solid numbers as the team's starter. The Saints likely won't get the same type of production from Shough or Rattler, while diminishing returns on defense could be another roadblock to success.
Predicted win total: 4
