2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Golden Knights vs. Oilers series preview

Vegas Golden Knights: 1^st in Pacific Division, 110 points, def. MIN in Round 1 (4-2)
Edmonton Oilers: 3^rd in Pacific Division, 101 points, def. LA in Round 1 (4-2)

Schedule (ET)

The Skinny

For the second time in three seasons, the Pacific Division title will be decided by a series between the Golden Knights and Oilers. The two teams also squared off in 2023, with Vegas putting on a defensive clinic to limit the Oilers’ two superstars to win the series in six, particularly Leon Draisaitl, who had just one assist in the final four games. Vegas went on to win the Cup that season, while the Oilers took the Clarence S. Campbell Bowl from them the following season, although they lost in the Final.

Both teams had to deal with a bit of adversity in the first round this season, and while their backs were never against the wall, they looked to be in trouble, and partially because of their goaltending. Vegas had the Minnesota Wild shock them early on in their series, going down 2-1 with Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy particularly running rampant, and Adin Hill struggled mightily in the crease. But Hill clamped down in the final three games, and the Golden Knights held Kaprizov and Boldy to a combined three points to win three straight and win the series.

Meanwhile, the Oilers were in even worse trouble, facing a 2-0 hole against the Los Angeles Kings and dealing with even worse goaltending issues in Stuart Skinner. But they pivoted to Calvin Pickard in Game 3, and after a couple of ugly wins in Edmonton to tie the series, they locked in and dominated in the final two games to close out the series.

While both teams had their struggles, both have proven to be elite teams, both this season and in the past as the Western Conference’s two most recent representatives in the Final. But which team will have the upper hand? Will the Golden Knights find a way to stifle the Oilers again, or will Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl be too much this time?

Head to Head

Vegas: 2-2-0
Edmonton: 2-2-0

It was a relatively even series between the Golden Knights and Oilers, as they split the four games over the course of the season. The first three games took place before the middle of December, with Vegas taking the first two by scores of 4-2 and 1-0, and Edmonton winning the last one with a more dominant 6-3 score, including starting out with a 5-0 lead.

The two teams did get into one game after the trade deadline when they looked more like their current selves, with the Oilers taking the game by a score of 3-2. Jake Walman was the lone deadline acquisition from either team to contribute to the scoresheet, scoring the first of Edmonton’s three goals and his first and so far only goal as an Oiler.

Top Five Scorers

Vegas

Tomas Hertl, 5 pts
Jack Eichel, 5 pts
Mark Stone, 4 pts
Shea Theodore, 4 pts
Brett Howden, 3 pts

Edmonton

Connor McDavid, 11 pts
Leon Draisaitl, 10 pts
Evan Bouchard, 7 pts
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 5 pts
Connor Brown, 5 pts

X-Factor

Everyone knows that a series with the Oilers will be the McDavid-Draisaitl show, and their top-end offense is easily their biggest advantage in this series. If the Golden Knights have any chance of matching it, or at least getting close to it, they’ll need Eichel to play like the guy who was drafted one pick behind McDavid.

It feels weird to say that a team’s top scorer is their X-factor, but when you’re up against two game-breaking talents, you need your top scorer to be your top scorer. Eichel wasn’t quite that against the Wild, and early on that nearly cost them when Kaprizov and Boldy were giving the Golden Knights fits while Eichel went pointless in the first three games. He picked things up with five points in the final three games, and Vegas will need that against Edmonton.

He doesn’t need to go video game mode like McDavid and Draisaitl to do so (for example, he had 9 points in 6 games in their 2023 series), but one goal and five points in six games isn’t enough.

Offense

The Golden Knights had one of the best offenses in the league during the regular season with a 3.34 goals for per game (5th in the league) and a 28.3% power play% (2nd), and that matched under the hood with a 2.77 5v5 expected goals for per 60 minutes (5th) and a 9.53 PP xGF/60 (8th).

But against Minnesota, they struggled a bit more in that regard, with just 3 GF/G (tied for 10th), a 2.5 5v5 xGF/60 (8th) and a 8.29 PP xGF/60 (10th), although their power play percentage has stayed about the same at 27.8% (tied for 7th).

That step back offensively showcased itself a bit in the output from some of the Golden Knights’ players in the first round, at least at the top end. Their Big Three offensively in Hertl, Eichel and Stone still led the team in scoring, but they all fell under a point-per-game. A bit more is expected from them in this series against the Oilers.

That said, Vegas’ depth scoring was much better against Minnesota. They got at least three points from nine players, including four defensemen in that group, and two points from 14 players. It also has to be promising for Vegas that all five players with just two points have the potential to have bigger impacts: Pavel Dorofeyev, Ivan Barbashev, William Karlsson, Reilly Smith and Brandon Saad.

The Oilers had a few more struggles in the regular season offensively, as they had more human numbers with a 3.16 GF/G (11th in the league) and a 23.7% PP% (12th). That said, their underlying numbers didn’t quite back that up with a 2.88 5v5 xGF/60 (2nd) and a 9.37 PP xGF/60 (10th), and that’s come to fruition in the playoffs. Against the Kings, Edmonton’s offense returned to the god-like levels that we expect from them, with a 4.5 GF/G (1st), a 38.5% PP% (2nd), a 3.44 5v5 xGF/60 (1st) and a 14.72 PP xGF/60 (2nd).

That’s led by Connor McDavid’s (I say this loosely) “return to form” after a more human regular season that saw him only just hit 100 points. Against Los Angeles, he looked like the player that won the Conn Smythe last year. He racked up 11 points in six games, while Draisaitl built off his stellar regular season with 10 points. The real player who had a return to form offensively was Evan Bouchard, who had seven points in the series, and currently leads the team in goals with four.

The Oilers also have similar depth scoring totals on their team, as along with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman looking more like themselves, Connor Brown and Vasily Podkolzin also finished with at least four points in the series. In addition, the Oilers had 11 players total with three points and 16 with two.

However, the players in those contribution ranges for the Oilers are players expected to be there, outside of a few players who could play bigger roles like Evander Kane, Corey Perry, Viktor Arvidsson, Jeff Skinner and Jake Walman. But, there isn’t quite as much upside compared to that of the players you expect to contribute more on Vegas’ side.

Defense

The Golden Knights’ defense wasn’t quite as consistent as their offense in the regular season (mostly due to a 75.7% penalty kill that ranked 26th in the league), but it was still quite sharp above and under the hood with a 2.61 goals against per game (third in the league) and a 2.42 5v5 expected goals against per 60 (tied for ninth). Even their penalty kill underlying numbers were good, with an 8.11 shorthanded XGA/60 (8th); they just dealt with the 7th-worst shorthanded save percentage in the league at 83.04%.

Against Minnesota, their 5v5 defense carried over under the hood with a 2.36 5v5 XGA/60 (5th), but due to Hill’s struggles in net, that didn’t translate to their actual goals against, which was 3.17 per game (t-8th). Their penalty kill didn’t really improve at 76.9% (tied for 6th), but the process for that did get a bit worse with an 11.35 SH xGA/60 (12th).

While Stone gets a lot of the attention among Golden Knights’ forwards for his defensive prowess, Karlsson has been their best forward in that regard this season. Not only did he finish the season with a 3.4 defensive GAR, he held that Kaprizov/Boldy duo to just two goals and less than one expected goal at 5v5.

Karlsson started with Smith and Olofsson before moving up alongside Eichel and Stone later in the series, but no matter who he was with, it produced good results. The Saad/Hertl/Dorofeyev unit also played very well with a 69.12% 5v5 xGF%, although they got much easier matchups.

On the blueline, Vegas leaned heavily on Alex Pietrangelo and Noah Hanifin to play the shutdown role, and while it wasn’t met with the exact same success as putting Karlsson against Kaprizov/Boldy, it still did a good enough job to get them the series win.

Where that Minnesota duo particularly feasted on the Golden Knights’ blueline was against Shea Theodore and Brayden McNabb, as that pair thrived in an environment of trading chances instead of shutdown defense. If Edmonton continues to roll McDavid and Draisaitl together, Bruce Cassidy could work to hide the Theodore/McNabb pair from them, but Vegas will have to hope that the pair can improve their game for this series if they don’t want to be victimized.

At the very least, Zach Whitecloud and Nicolas Hague are as solid of a bottom pair as they come and can hold their own if they get trapped in tough matchups.

As for the Oilers, the regular season saw them take a step back from their Cup Final form a year ago to a more mediocre defensive game. They finished the year with a 2.87 GA/G (14th), a 78.2% PK% (16th), 2.43 5v5 xGA/60 (tied for 11th), and an 8.22 SH xGA/60 (tied for 11th). But that was with Mattias Ekholm.

With their go-to shutdown defenseman out for the start of the playoffs (including this series), the Oilers clearly struggled. While they had a similar 5v5 xGA/60 with 2.45 (tied for 7th) against the Kings, they allowed 4 GA/G (tied for 14th), had a 60% PK% (16th), and a 12.41 SH xGA/60 (13th). Some of the straight goal numbers are inflated by their goaltending, but the defense hasn’t been any help.

Part of that has been because of the play of the makeshift top pair of Evan Bouchard and Darnell Nurse. While their 52.3% 5v5 expected goal share against the Kings isn’t horrible, it was in sheltered minutes. Bouchard actually has a 69.29% rate away from Nurse, so it feels like a waste of your best defenseman. In his time with Jake Walman and Brett Kulak, he had a respective 57.77% and 79.13% share, which feels like a much better use of those minutes.

Walman has surprisingly seen more success with John Klingberg (71.14% 5v5 xGF% playing against the Kings’ top six), but Kulak was so-so in a similar role with Ty Emberson (47.91%), so perhaps a switch up there is in order since Ekholm’s not going to be a saving grace.

The best part about the Oilers defense is the fact that their two forwards who play half the game in McDavid and Draisaitl have evolved their two-way game to overwhelm opponents offensively and defensively. It makes for a nightmare matchup for anyone, especially when they can’t at least exploit them defensively like teams used to be able to.

The second line of Nugent-Hopkins, Hyman and Kane was also good in a shutdown role in a bend-don’t-break matter. They did get outplayed a bit in the shot attempts department (46.88% 5v5 shot attempt share), but held down the fort in terms of the prime chances (74.96% 5v5 xGF%).

The Trent Frederic/Adam Henrique/Connor Brown played similarly well despite getting caught up in tough minutes, while the fourth line of Viktor Arvidsson/Mattias Janmark/Vasily Podkolzin has been adequate.

Goaltending

Hill was good enough for the Golden Knights in the regular season, finishing the year with a .906 save percentage and an 11.79 goals saved above expected, but it was a tale of two goalies in the first round. The first three games against Minnesota were a bit rocky with a .827 SV% and a -2.97 GSAx, but he flipped that around in the final three games to a more modest .918 SV% and 1.9 GSAx. That said, against an offense as daunting as the Oilers’, Vegas will need him in a similar form to these two teams’ previous matchup in 2023, when he stepped in and sported a .934 SV% and 5.56 GSAx.

The Oilers also had a tale of two goalies in net in their series, but in a literal sense. Skinner also had a good enough season for the Oilers, with a .895 SV% that was more due to the Edmonton’s defensive play in front of him, as shown by his 7 GSAx on the year. However, he struggled down the stretch, and that carried into the playoffs, which saw him get lit up for 11 goals in two games with an .810 SV% and a -2.71 GSAx.

That meant that the Oilers had to turn to Pickard if they wanted to stay alive down 2-0 to the Kings, and while he didn’t steal the series, he was good enough to get the job done with an .893 SV% and -0.62 GSAx. He’ll get the crease to start the series, but I’d imagine that if he falters, Edmonton will go back to Skinner. Regardless, this remains the Oilers’ biggest weakness.

Injuries

The Golden Knights aren’t dealing with a ton of injuries, and might actually be fully healthy going into Game 1, but there is one unknown in Dorofeyev. The winger missed Game 6 due to an injury, and didn’t practice on Saturday. For now, he’s day-to-day with a return for Game 1 on Tuesday up in the air, but I’d imagine he returns to the series at some point.

The Oilers also don’t have a ton of injuries, but the one that they are missing is a big one. As previously mentioned, Ekholm has already been confirmed out for the second round, so the Oilers blueline will have to hold down the fort without him.

Intangibles

In a weird way, the Golden Knights don’t have a pressing need to win this season. That won’t stop them from trying, but if they fail, it’s not the end of the world. After all, they won the Stanley Cup two years ago, and 13 players from that team are on this year’s roster.

Even looking through their roster this season, Tanner Pearson and Brandon Saad are the oldest players that weren’t on the 2023 team, and they won Cups previously with the Los Angeles Kings and the Chicago Blackhawks. The “old guy without a Cup” on this team is Tomas Hertl, who’s only 31 and is still locked in for five more seasons after this one.

Speaking of contracts, the Golden Knights also aren’t due for a cap crunch this offseason either. A majority of their core is locked up, with their best player with a pending free agent status being Hague, but a rising cap gives them almost $9 million to get that done. Sure, they have to fill in some of the holes with their forward depth as well, but that’s the easy part.

Basically, the only concern for Vegas is the fact that they’re getting older every year, so the window will slam shut eventually, especially with their lack of draft and prospect capital. But the bill shouldn’t come due for a little while.

For the Oilers, it’s the exact opposite. They fell one game short of winning the Stanley Cup last year, and as the Amazon Prime documentary showed us, they’re pissed off and hungry for more. No one wants that more than McDavid and Draisaitl, and you already got the sense from their first round series against the Kings that they’ll carry this team as far as they can to make that happen.

But in the wake of that loss, they doubled down on what was the oldest roster last season, and made it even older this year. Along with the fact that the $24.9 million allocated to McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard is set to almost double in about 14 months time, this roster probably won’t be able to stick together for too much longer. And they don’t have the prospect pool to replace that either.

Basically, Vegas comes into this series without a lot of high stakes, while they’re about as high as they can be for Edmonton. Does that allow the Golden Knights to be calm and poised, and pick apart a panicking Oilers team, or will the Oilers’ desperation give them an extra step to pull off the win?

Series Predictions

Last round, I predicted that the Kings would finally best the Oilers and win a series. I doubted McDavid, Draisaitl and co. and went with the surprise pick, and it burned me. I’ve learned my lesson this time around, right?

Nope. As much as I hate betting against McDavid and Draisaitl, the Oilers and Kings series felt like a coin flip. Vegas as a whole are just a step better than the Oilers, especially when they have the defensive tools to contain Edmonton’s offense. Along with that, the Oilers’ defense and goaltending predictably struggled in the first round, and the Golden Knights are a better offensive team than the Kings. It still wouldn’t surprise me if Edmonton pulls it off, but on paper, Vegas is the better team outside of the 1C, 2C and 1D slots.