Yesterday, I wrote three reasons to pay attention to the rest of the Flyers season. With 25 games remaining, there is plenty of reason to tune in and pay attention to the Flyers as they play the final 25-game stretch. I was the little angel on your shoulder, sharing the happy and positive aspects of the rest of the season.
New York Islanders' Brock Nelson, right, celebrates with Kyle Palmieri, center, after Nelson scored the game-winning goal against Philadelphia Flyers' Ivan Fedotov during overtime in an NHL hockey game, Monday, April 1, 2024, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
A refreshed Matvei Michkov, a prove-it chance for Sam Ersson, and a good look at the Flyers’ youth are all good reasons to pay attention to the Flyers.
Now, it’s time to play the devil on your other shoulder. With the postseason nearly out of sight, there is reason to be pessimistic about the Flyers this season.
Could the Flyers Bottom Out?
The Flyers were not expected to be good this season. However, their expectation-exceeding play from 2023/24 set the bar slightly higher than it should have been for the 2024/25 season. As a team, the Flyers have been trending down since the holiday break ended. They have a record of 9-10-3 since December 28th. In their last 10 games before the break, the Flyers are 3-6-1.
The Flyers’ roster will likely become thinner once the trade deadline passes, with veteran players like Scott Laughton and Rasmus Ristolainen generating interest. If the Flyers decide to move on from those vets, I expect the standard of play to grow worse in Philly.
Let’s be honest: losing hockey is not entertaining. Who willingly would want to watch their team bottom out? Of course, losing hockey would grow pessimism in Philly. They’re not in the playoff hunt; the bottom six are primarily made up of AHL players. Has that ever been cause for optimism?
Backup Goaltending
If you were to believe that the Flyers postseason hunt is still alive, the backup goaltender situation is undoubtedly a cause for pessimism.
Ivan Fedotov took the No.2 goalie job away from Aleksei Kolosov early in the new year, but it is not like that was a high bar. Fedotov and Kolosov are average over three goals against and have a save percentage below .880. Among goaltenders with a minimum of 15 games played, both Flyers’ backups are in the bottom four in save percentage (Kolosov 2nd worst, Fedotov 4th worst). Fedotov (7th worst) and Kolosov (4th worst) are in the bottom 10 in goals against average.
The backup goaltending position in Philly alone is a cause for pessimism, but if you’re looking to make a run this season, this will likely get in their way.
Sam Ersson cannot play all 25 games left this season. Hopefully, he will get a good chunk of that final stretch, but giving him 25 games is very unrealistic. That would require the backup goalies to win a game, which is rare this season. Fedotov’s last win came on November 29th against the Rangers. Kolosov’s previous win came on December 12th against the Red Wings. The pair of backups have a combined eight wins this season. That is certainly not a positive outlook.
What if they Stay in the Mushy Middle?
The Flyers will have quite the mountain to climb if they want a chance to make the playoffs. I am talking about a massive mountain. Think about last season. They were trending towards a high-end draft pick. They then outplayed their expectations and had a chance to make the playoffs. Philly was eliminated on the last day of the season. In a season where getting a top-talent prospect to add to the prospect pool was important for the rebuild, the Flyers played themselves out of a good draft position and were set to pick 12th (traded to 13th).
That is not a knock on Jett Luchanko, who has certainly outplayed my expectations so far. The point is that if the Flyers don’t choose their direction, they could put themselves out of contention for a top prospect and push themselves to another mid-round draft pick. The Flyers could opt to keep one of Laughton and Ristolainen, or even both, and keep their level of play right in that mushy middle.
The Flyers’ position when the 4 Nations break started gives them the best odds for the sixth overall pick in the upcoming draft. However, they are just two points away from being ninth and three points away from being outside the top 10. Granted, teams behind them would have to lose games, but given how bad the mushy middle is, that does not seem like a stretch.
While this may not be a cause for pessimism now, another mid-first-round draft selection could cause pessimism in the long-term vision of the rebuild.
