With 16 days remaining until the 2025 Free Agency period begins, the Colorado Avalanche have to make some big decisions when it comes to how they want to free up cap space to re-sign their pending unrestricted free agents and their one restricted free agent.
The Avalanche used a large portion of their cap space to re-sign Brock Nelson and help solidify their top six, leaving many to question what a Sam Malinski contract would look like? Elliotte Friedman provided some insight on "32 Thoughts: The Podcast" to help provide more info on the Avalanche's current cap situation.
Last season, Malinski played 76 games and recorded five goals and ten assists, totaling 15 points, including one power-play point. He received a significant boost in confidence this season compared to the 2023-24 season, during which he only participated in 24 games, often coming in and out of the lineup. However, due to the changes made to the defense over the past summer, he became a key contributor to the team.
Outside of the Cale Makar and Devon Toews pairing, the defensive pairings underwent numerous changes throughout the season, and Malinski had eight different defense partners this past season. The pairing he spent the most time with was Samuel Girard, with 307.7 minutes of ice time in 64 games, the third-largest ice time outside of the Girard-Josh Manson pair and the Toews-Makar pairing. He also spent a considerable amount of time with Calvin De Hann before he was traded in the Ryan Lindgren deal. Playing 41 games for a total of 242.3 minutes of ice time.
Malinski saw more ice time, which translated to some impressive advanced statistics. According to MoneyPuck, the Malinski-De Hann pairing finished with the best xGoals% at 59.4%, while the Girard-Malinski pairing finished with the third-best xGoals For at 12.8. He finished in the top five of best xGoals Against with his pairing with Lindgren, Keaton Middleton, and De Hann. At the same time, finishing with the best xGoals Against Per 60 Minutes with De Hann at 1.56. With these advanced analytics, it should be a clear sign to keep Malinski. Well, even Friedman suggests it.
“They don't have a lot of cap room, but they've gotta sign Sam Malinski, who's a very solid, young defenseman. But other than that, they don't have a lot of business they necessarily have to do.” - Elliote Friedman, 32 Thoughts: The Podcast
Friedman continued to mention how the Avalanche are in a tricky situation due to all the rumors and talk circulating the team. Martin Necas reportedly unhappy; could Charlie Coyle be on the move? How can they create more cap space? He even mentions Lindgren and how he reportedly might be a prime candidate to walk into free agency without an extension.
“The one thing I've heard: they traded for Lindgren, who's probably gonna go to market. I've heard they wouldn't mind another defenseman with a bit of jam or edge to them, but I've heard they're not - just because other people may look at them and say, 'they're too tight to the cap, they gotta make a move,' I'm not convinced they think that."
Currently 26 years old, his expiring contract is a two-year, $1.7 million deal, with a cap hit of $850,000 per season. Heading into summer as a restricted free agent with Arbitration Eligibility, Malinski should get a raise this summer, but the question is how much should he make?
The Avalanche could offer him the remainder of their current salary cap, which is $1.2 million. If Malinski requests a higher salary, the team would need to move other contracts to create additional cap space, as well as make other adjustments to their defense. Given that he is only 26, there is potential for his growth and development, as well as an increase in productivity. A 2-3 year deal could be beneficial for both the Avalanche and Malinski, especially as the salary cap continues to rise and the team addresses its other cap issues.
He could consider arbitration if he believes he can secure a better offer and disagrees with what the Avalanche is offering, but it is risky to take things that far. Consider Necas and his situation with the Carolina Hurricanes when he opted for arbitration. There were rumours that he was unhappy with his role with the Hurricanes and came with speculation that he could be moved before the 2024 NHL Entry Draft. Eventually, Necas did sign his current two-year, $13 million deal, which carries a $6.5 million cap hit.
Malinski was an “overager” coming from Cornell University who had worked his way up through the Colorado Eagles AHL on a professional tryout contract to earn a spot in the starting lineup. He has demonstrated the ability to contribute both offensively and defensively, especially when paired with a strong partner, and he also shows potential for further growth.
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