A few thoughts about Jed Hoyer, Craig Counsell and Cubs management

The Cubs fell short of the postsason. How can they fix that?

More than two years ago, I posted an article here headlined “The Cubs should fire Jed Hoyer.”

Last June, I posted this followup on the topic.

That’s just so you know I am no fan of the Cubs President of Baseball Operations. While he has done some good things in that position, overall I believe his tenure can be described as “timid.” Moves that could have been made weren’t. Players who shouldn’t have been let go were. I think you’ll agree the Cubs should not be run in a “timid” fashion.

First, let’s look at some of the good things Hoyer did. In the massive selloff of the World Series core that happened in July 2021, Hoyer brought back some talent that’s beginning to make itself shown at Wrigley Field. Pete Crow-Armstrong, for one, appears to be on the cusp of being a star in this league. Kevin Alcántara got a brief taste of the major leagues last month and he still has outstanding talent. Caleb Kilian might become a useful pitcher if the Cubs would just put him in the bullpen where he belongs. And, as a return from a previous Hoyer deal, Owen Caissie looks like he’s a MLB-quality hitter.

Then there are free-agent signings such as Cody Bellinger, who had one really good year for the Cubs and one not-so-good (and note, most Cubs fans were largely in favor of the team re-signing Bellinger for the 2024 season). Shōta Imanaga was a revelation this year, both on and off the field, and at a reasonable price. While Dansby Swanson might not have had as good a year in 2024 as he did in 2023, he’s likely winning another Gold Glover this year and has become a team leader.

However, there have been some pretty bad mistakes, too. Signing Andrelton Simmons and Jonathan Villar, against the advice of team scouts, cost the Cubs $10 million that could have been invested in better players. The same was done with Trey Mancini and Tucker Barnhart, signed to two-year contracts and both released in the first year. This added $9.5 million to the 2024 payroll for players who didn’t play for the team (and Mancini didn’t play for anyone this year). Eric Hosmer, also a wasted signing, at least cost the Cubs only the minimum salary.

The Cubs also let some useful players go for nothing. We all know the story of Kyle Schwarber’s non-tender and there’s no need to re-hash it here, other than to say that, in the old phrase, it was “penny-wise and pound-foolish.”

And there were others cut loose by the Cubs for nothing who have become useful players elsewhere. The Cubs didn’t keep Jason Adam after an admittedly bad 2021 season during which he suffered a gruesome ankle injury during batting practice at Triple-A Iowa. Adam was signed for $900,000 by the Rays, for whom he had more than two outstanding seasons before being traded to the Padres, for whom he is now pitching in the postseason. Instead, Hoyer gave $1.1 million to Daniel Norris, who was terrible before being released in July 2022.

The Cubs also lost out on reliever Bryan Hudson, who was their third-round pick in 2015. He was let go as a six-year minor league free agent after 2022. Hudson signed with the Dodgers and didn’t do much for them, but after he was traded to the Brewers this year, he threw lights-out until an injury shortened his season.

All of this appears to be an indictment of Hoyer’s front office’s talent judgment.

Should that be cause for firing? I think most of you would say yes.

But the only voice that matters in such things is that of Cubs executive chairman Tom Ricketts. Will he be frustrated enough with the failures of the last two seasons to let Hoyer go? This is, at the present time, an unanswerable question. Ricketts has yet to send out an email to Cubs fans, although last year’s came a bit later in October, so I’d still expect something from him expressing his feelings about how the team did this year and his thoughts for next year.

The question I’d ask you is: Do you want the Cubs to start over with a new President of Baseball Operations right now? Someone who’d likely want to tear things down? This team, in my view, isn’t that far from the postseason. Sign a top starter, figure out why they couldn’t hit at home this year and get some bullpen reinforcements and I’d think they can compete for the NL Central title.

If Tom Ricketts does decide to fire Hoyer and go in a different direction, Kim Ng, who ran the Marlins before she was pretty much run out of there by new ownership, might be a good choice. I have previously mentioned Sam Fuld, who has been second-in-command with the Phillies under Dave Dombrowski for several years, as a man who is a smart guy (economics degree from Stanford), has management experience and also played Major League Baseball. That’s one thing Hoyer’s front office has lacked since Craig Breslow departed — there’s no one on the Cubs executive team who played the game. I think that’s a useful perspective to have.

At the moment, I think Tom Ricketts will let Jed Hoyer finish off the final year of his five-year deal and try to build a team that can win the division in 2025. But the team surprised us a year ago with the firing of David Ross and hiring of Craig Counsell as manager, so... I suppose anything can happen.

Speaking of Counsell, here are a few of my thoughts about him as manager.

The one thing he did far differently from Ross is managing his pitching staff well. He didn’t push guys beyond their capabilities, especially in September. Last year, Ross did that and who knows, it might have ruined Adbert Alzolay’s career. This year, even though Shōta Imanaga very much wanted to start the final game of the season, Counsell held him out. The Cubs lost the game, but that wasn’t the starting pitcher’s fault, as Caleb Kilian threw a game very comparable to many Imanaga starts.

Counsell gave Christopher Morel a lot more rope at third base than Ross would have. The experiment failed and Morel was traded, but Counsell showed some trust in his players. They do seem to respect him and his managerial experience. He always supports his players with the media.

One of the toughest losses of the year was Sept. 2 at Wrigley Field, a 5-3 loss to the Pirates after Jameson Taillon made an outstanding start. It was yet another bullpen failure.

Listen to Counsell’s postgame comments [VIDEO].

Nothing but support for his players, no excuses made. This is the kind of man, and manager, Counsell is. He wasn’t able to bring in his own coaches for 2024, and you have already seen some coaches let go and Counsell will bring in his own guys and he will also be very involved in player decisions over the winter. He did not hesitate when discussing the Cubs team he wants to manage, as reported last month by Maddie Lee in the Sun-Times:

Looking ahead, Counsell said the space the Brewers have put between themselves and the rest of the division “makes it daunting.”

“They’ve created a gap the last two years in the division,” he said. “So we’ve got room to go, man. We’ve got work to do, for sure.”

Counsell, of course, was part of that process last year. His Brewers helped eliminate the Cubs from playoff contention in the last weekend of the regular season even while resting their top starters with a playoff berth already clinched.

Then the accomplished manager, known for getting the most out of his teams in small-market Milwaukee, left for the promise of a new challenge with the division rival down the road.

“We should try to be building 90-win teams here,” Counsell said. “That’s what you have to do; that’s the playoff standard. That’s what you’ve got to get to be safely in the playoffs, safely in the tournament. So from that perspective, we’ve got a ways to go.”

To me, that statement was aimed right at Hoyer, kind of putting him on notice. In other words: “You hired me to manage playoff teams, but you haven’t given me one.”

And so we wait to see what Tom Ricketts will do with Jed Hoyer this winter, if anything. I will say this: If Hoyer is fired, Carter Hawkins should be as well. Don’t just promote the guy who’s second-in-command if you fire the top guy. Hint: The White Sox did that and look where they wound up.

Lastly, you’ll note that I haven’t mentioned anything here about Hoyer and 2025 signings or trades. That’s largely because it’s too early — we don’t yet know about Cody Bellinger’s opt-out, or other decisions that will affect payroll for 2025. When we have more certainty on those things, Dep and I will write our usual “too early look at payroll” article, probably in early to mid November. At that point, too, we should have various free-agent rankings and contract estimates.

At the moment, I’m not going to take a position on Hoyer being fired. If he is, that’s fine. If not, then, well, his job is definitely going to be on the line in 2025.

As always, we await developments.