It's no secret that James Cook wants a contract extension, with just one year left on his rookie deal. It's also no surprise that Buffalo Bills' GM Brandon Beane has prioritized the extensions of other players before the team's starting running back.
It's a positive sign that Cook is at minicamp and participating in drills, but that doesn't mean a new contract is coming anytime soon.
It's easy to look at Cook's back to back seasons of over 1,000 rushing yards, and 2024 campaign with a league-leading 16 rushing touchdowns, and understand why he wants to be paid like other top RBs in the NFL. However, a deeper dive into Cook's analytics show why a contract that steep isn't warranted.
Kyle Crabbs of AtoZ Sports reflected on the irony of Cook's situation. Just last offseason, Buffalo showed they were willing to part ways with top offensive players when they traded Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans for a second round pick, eating over $30 million in dead cap in the process. The result was Josh Allen enjoying his most efficient season of his career, taking home the MVP award at the NFL Honors.
Crabbs dove deeper into Cook's situation, starting with the fact that the RB is only on the field for about half of Buffalo's offensive plays. In 2023, Cook saw just 55% of offensive snaps, with that number dropping to 48% in 2024. But why is this the case? As Crabbs writes, "it isn't as if this team has conspired against Cook to play him as a lesser player for no reason other than to keep his negotiating leverage down."
Bluntly stated by Crabbs, "Cook is a limited player in pass protection, period." He continues, "He's been asked to pass protect just 44 times in the last two seasons and conceded nine pressures on those limited reps. That's a woeful ratio and a testament to why Cook is often off the field on third-downs all together."
Despite coming out of Georgia as 'pass catching back', Cook has struggled at times to bring that element of his game to the next level. "Cook has a 10 percent drop rate on targets over the last two seasons despite getting just 14 of those 92 targets further than 5 yards downfield. Three of those 14 targets downfield were drops and all three would have been touchdowns," explains Crabbs.
While Cook ranks fifth among RBs in yards before contact per rush, he is 20th in yards after contact per rush, showing how Buffalo's offensive line plays a large role in Cook's success running the football.
Even after these shortcomings, Crabbs acknowledges that Cook is a "quality starter and should be given credit for the work he's done," which is why he suggests the Bills hold their ground in the range of $10-$12 million AAV, citing the contracts for Aaron Jones ($10 million AAV) and Alvin Kamara ($12.25 million AAV) as benchmarks.
Regardless of whether or not the Bills get an extension done with Cook, the offense shouldn't be expected to suffer any setbacks. Ray Davis and Ty Johnson provide sufficient options to replace Buffalo's current RB1, and at the end of the day, "This town, and offense, runs through 17."
