The Carolina Hurricanes offseason has been quite an experience for not only the team but fans as well. The most optimistic fans see this as a “you may be surprised” team, while the most pessimistic feel like the team crumbled before their eyes. The reality probably lies somewhere in between. It will definitely be a reset from the team of the last few years. We may see a regression in performance but it likely shouldn’t be a collapse.
But it will also provide its own set of opportunities, especially for younger, up-and-coming players. Much has been said about the departures of Brady Skjei, Brett Pesce, Teuvo Teravainen, Stefan Noesen, and Jake Guentzel. Slightly less has been talked about the return of Shayne Gostisbehere and the arrival of Sean Walker. But there is one signing that was made on day one of free agency that may prove to be a sneaky good move by general manager Eric Tulsky. Let’s look at what Carolina may be getting in William Carrier.
William Carrier Comes to Carolina
Carrier is a big 6′ 2″, 218 lb. forward who uses his size to play a physical game. With a Stanley Cup Championship ring as a member of the Vegas Golden Knights, Carrier was originally an expansion draft selection from the Buffalo Sabres. Since then, the 29-year-old forward has played every season with the Golden Knights. He collected 53 goals and 46 assists over 372 games in Vegas while playing mostly in a fourth line role. No, this is not another Jake Guentzel when it comes to scoring goals and putting up points. But the key to Carrier lies elsewhere.
A Brind’Amour Player
As mostly a fourth-line player, Carrier possesses some of the best analytics amongst bottom-six players in the league. This includes metrics tracking chance generation, scoring rates, and play driving as well as strong defensive numbers. Last season he led all Vegas players in expected goals percentage with 60.23% at 5v5. While the playoffs weren’t so strong last season, Carrier held expected goals percentages over 60% in the 2019-20 and 2020-21 playoffs. He also ranked near the top of Golden Knights in Corsi and Fenwick last season, even though he took more defensive zone starts (74) compared to offensive zone ones (63). Looking at his player card below you can see his analytical effectiveness supported even further at both ends of the ice. If this doesn’t sound like a Rod Brind’Amour player, nothing does.
William “Carrying” Something to Carolina
Whether Carrier remains on the fourth line or moves up to the third in Carolina, he has the potential to make a huge impact on the team. He is more than a plug-in fourth liner but should fit, and improve Brind’Amour’s heavy forechecking style of play. But with players like Jordan Martinook, Jordan Staal, and Jesper Fast already possessing some of these traits, what additional qualities does the Carrier acquisition bring? Isn’t it just more of the same?
Well, yes and no. Even assuming Fast’s injury doesn’t keep him out of the lineup, Carrier gives Carolina another depth option to drive play and hold his own in the defensive zone. Even though on his own, his expected goals percentage fell slightly under each of Martinook, Staal, and Fast, Carrier’s line with Nicolas Roy and Keegan Kolesar held a 68.60% expected goals percentage. Martinook, Staal, and Fast had a 61.89%. With Carrier, Roy, and Kolesar, they carried a 43.12% expected goals percentage. Of course some of this could come down to matchups and such, but the point is that Carrier has shown he can greatly affect a line’s expected goals (for and against) effectiveness.
A Potential Cornerstone of the Bottom-Six
When you combine Carrier’s size, analytical effectiveness, and Stanley Cup winning experience, you get a player that Carolina can count on the hold down the bottom six for years. His six year, $2 million AAV contract is somewhat odd in its length compared to AAV. But holding a firm $2 million AAV, with what hopefully will be an increasing salary cap, gives Carolina an effective, cost controlled asset in the bottom six.
This won’t be the goal-scoring machine that Carolina too will need to find this coming season. But it gives the team size and effectiveness in the bottom six to compliment the more skilled players. You could see in the playoffs that Fast’s absence seemed to make a difference. These play-driving forwards hold a special place on any team. This is especially so in the playoffs. But for a team like Carolina, it carries even more weight. This could be an underrated move for Carolina.
