Analyst's logic says Ashton Jeanty should be available to Bears

It just doesn't add up.

The Bears might want a running back but consensus best running back Ashton Jeanty is being mock-drafted or projected to go sixth to Pete Carroll and the Las Vegas Raiders by everyone who has watched a football being thrown on Sundays.

From ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr., to CBS' Mike Renner and Josh Edwards, to The Ringer's Todd McShay, to The Athletic's Dane Brugler, to NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah, everyone says the pick for the Raiders will be Jeanty sixth overall.

This will leave the Bears looking either at drafting Omarion Hampton well before most analysts have hs grade, or waiting until Round 2 if they want to put a back with more power into the mix with D'Andre Swift.

However, not everyone thinks Jeanty should become the fourth back taken sixth or better in the last decade. ESPN's Mina Kimes thinks the Raiders really need to get serious about their bigger problem before they think about drafting Jeanty, and makes a logical case for it.

The team she thinks should be drafting Jeanty: The Chicago Bears.

The logic for the Bears is simple but the real root of her message is the explanation for why the Raiders would be entirely stupid if they take the sixth pick and use it for a running back.

She said an offensive lineman or receiver would make more sense for the Raiders.

"Considering a receiver, maybe an offensive lineman, two positions where, because the players make so much more money you get more value from finding a rookie star," she said.

The other reason is more specific to the Raiders and the Bears' example is applicable here.

"A great running back cannot fix a bad offensive line, even one as good as Ashton Jenty," Kime said. "So I think when you look at the top 10, thinking about places where you want to take him, a team that comes to mind is Chicago for me, one that has put a lot of money into fixing their offensive line because if you stick him behind a bad offensive line that's not a good draft pick."

The Raiders haven't done enough to make Jeanty or anyone else effective, is her main argument besides the cost-efficiency of taking a lineman or receiver there.

It's difficult to argue her point. The Raiders last year finished the season with an offensive line ranked 26th overall by Pro Football Focus, one worse even than the Bears by two spots.

And while the Bears went all in rebuilding their offensive line in free agency, the only thing the Raiders really did to try to bolster the line was sign a two-year deal with Alex Cappa, a Tampa Bay guard, at an average of $5.6 million per year.

That's almost backup money. It's very low-end starter money for the line. Cappa was targeted mainly because John Spytek, the GM and former Buccaneers executive, knew of his abilities. He's a lineman ESPN had graded last in pass block win rate and 58th in run block win rate among 64 guards graded.

And they're going to put Geno Smith and Jeanty behind that line? That deserves a "good luck with that."

Maybe a better path for the Raiders would be to do what the Bears actually did in free agency and try to bolster their offensive line before they start drafting running backs. There are plenty of running backs in the draft but the best offensive linemen are usually taken early.

The Raiders have a great tight end in Brock Bowers. It would only make sense for them to make sure Smith has more time to find his target rather than throw another skill player into the mix who isn't going to help the blocking for Smith and will be getting hit himself in the backfield.

A wise old coach like Carroll should realize all of this.

On this end, it's not so much an attempt to fix the Raiders but to get Jeanty available for the Bears.

Actually, there's no telling whether all of this supposed Vegas interest in Jeanty is real or merely a ruse to coax someone into trading up.

A move back by the Raiders would make so much more sense for them because, at 10 or by trading back with Dallas at 12, they could add more line help in that round and then later with a pick acquired by moving back, and then also get a running back in Round 2.

If the Raiders use the logic made available by Kimes, then Jeanty becomes more available to the Bears.