Matthews' slow start to the season is nothing new and it's likely to turn.
Before the Toronto Maple Leafs faced the Minnesota Wild at Xcel Energy Center on Sunday, Matthew Knies shared his thoughts on the team's 4-2 loss to the St. Louis Blues the previous night.
"We weren't playing our kind of hockey," Knies noted. "We can play offensive hockey, we've just got to do the simple things, the boring things."
Maple Leafs head coach Craig Berube has emphasized a straightforward, north-south style of play involving heavy hits and finishing checks. The adjustment to this more physical, structured game has been an ongoing learning process for the Leafs.
Auston Matthews, adapting to the new system under Berube, has seen his offensive numbers dip in the early part of the season. The reigning Maurice 'Rocket' Richard Trophy winner has managed only five goals through the first 16 games—a noticeable slowdown. Several factors contribute to Matthews' reduced scoring pace, including the team’s transition to a more defensively responsible style.
Asked about his adjustment, Matthews stressed patience and the importance of playing within the team's structure. Following the Leafs' 2-1 overtime loss to the Wild in a tight, low-scoring game, Matthews commented:
"I think it's just being patient, trusting in our structure and in our process throughout the game that we don't need to go score right away," he said. "Just go win your shift, try to get the momentum going on our side and just roll them over, utilize all four lines.
"In the third period, nobody really wanted to make a mistake. So I thought we held our structure pretty good and obviously got that point, which is important."
There’s an argument that Matthews is more focused on team success than personal statistics, but his production remains essential to the Leafs' aspirations. His scoring pace and the team's progress toward their goals are intertwined.
Power Play Woes
The Leafs' power play has also struggled, ranking among the league's worst. A retooled top unit, featuring Matthews alongside the usual core four forwards plus Knies, finally saw a breakthrough, lifting them slightly out of last place with a 10% conversion rate heading into Monday's games. Matthews assisted William Nylander on a key power-play goal that ended the slump, and improving the power play could help bolster his goal totals, as it has in previous seasons.
Shooting Metrics and Offensive Chances
Despite the scoring slowdown, Matthews is still generating a healthy number of shots, averaging 4.31 per game—slightly down from his 4.56 shots per game last season, when he netted 69 goals. Many of his attempts have simply not found the back of the net. Notably, 17 of his 56 shots on goal have come with the man advantage, where struggles have limited his usual production.
Metrics like expected goals suggest Matthews' scoring potential remains high. According to NaturalStatTrick.com, Matthews has an expected-goals total of 21.78. Over an 81-game season (matching the number he played in his 69-goal season), he is on pace for 135.7 expected goals—exceeding the 132.63 mark he posted last year.
While Matthews' scoring pace is down, there may be little reason for concern. In the 2021-22 season, he overcame a slow start following wrist surgery and went on to capture his first Hart Trophy with a 60-goal campaign.
Ultimately, if the Leafs' defensive emphasis prepares them better for the playoffs, the sacrifice in early-season goal totals may be worthwhile.
"Our game was really good in the first period [against St. Louis]," Berube remarked before Sunday's game. "It was nothing fancy. It's just hard work."
Matthews' shooting percentage sits at 8.93 percent. His worst season in that regard was in 2022-23 when he clearly wasn't at 100 percent. It's likely Matthews' dip is nothing for Leafs fans to be too concerned about.
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