Atlanta Falcons Projected Win Total Takes Nose Dive in 2025

The Atlanta Falcons had high expectations heading into the 2024 season. The game's top free agent quarterback joined what was considered a playoff-ready roster with an energetic new coach.

It started off well for the Falcons who hit 6-3 after beating the Dallas Cowboys at home, and then the wheels fell off.

The Falcons lost four straight and six of their last eight to finish 8-9. After the season, quarterback Kirk Cousins claimed he played with an injury picked up in that Week 10 loss to the Saints that started the downward spiral. A claim that was vehemently denied by the Falcons' brass.

No. 8 overall pick Michael Penix Jr. finally took over for a woefully-poor Cousins for the final-three games and showed off the rocket of a left arm that has given long-term hope to a franchise in desperate need of some.

However, ESPNBet isn't convinced that the Falcons have fixed enough of their problems, including hiring defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, to improve on their 8-9 record. The site has the Falcons over/under on win totals at 7.5 with lead analyst Mike Clay running simulations that sets that same number at 6.7, 27th in the NFL.

Before reflexively dismissing the national site as haters who are biased against the Falcons, this historical note is interesting.

"The Falcons have gone under their win total in six of the last seven seasons, covering only in 2022 with seven wins on a projected 4.5 total," -- ESPN

In other words, Vegas has been too optimistic on the Falcons every year but one since 2018, all of which ended with a losing record.

It's no surprise then that Atlanta has had three coaches during that seven-year span.

There's reason for optimism as the Falcons enter 2025. Atlanta was No. 6 in total offense last year at 369.8 yards per game despite Cousins's mid-season collapse. While it's a small sample size, that number ballooned to 401 in Penix's three starts. Center Drew Dalman is the only significant loss to that unit.

Atlanta lost some veterans on the other side of the ball. Defensive tackle Grady Jarrett is with the Bears, while edge rusher Matt Judon and safety Justin Simmons remain free agents. Atlanta backfilled with Leonard Floyd and Jordan Fuller and will likely use their first-two picks in April's draft to get immediate contributors on that side of the ball as well.

The Falcons' biggest offseason move may be the hiring of Ulbrich. Ulbrich replaces Jimmy Lake whose first season as an NFL defensive coordinator was his last. Lake's base defense was a soft-cover-prevent better suited for teams with three score leads in the fourth quarter. The defense should be better by default even without an influx of draft picks.

The big question is - what happens to the administration if the preseason predictions are spot on?

If the Falcons go 7-10 for the fourth time in general manager Terry Fontenot's five seasons in charge, it seems likely owner Arthur Blank would clean house. A new coach, a new general manager, and a much better salary cap situation in 2026 than the one Fontenot inherited in 2021. Even a repeat of 2024's 8-9 would put head coach Raheem Morris and Fontenot in jeopardy.

However, if the Falcons blow through that win total and have their first winning season since 2017, they'll enter 2026 with a hot-young quarterback, a players' coach, a playoff team, and a boatload of money to spend on free agents.

2025 is a tipping point for this franchise, and fans are hoping Vegas has underestimated the Atlanta Falcons for a change.