If the Colorado Avalanche want to be considered among the upper echelon of Stanley Cup contenders next season, there is a lot of work for the front office duo of Joe Sakic and Chris MacFarland to do this offseason.
The Avalanche’s cap situation is well explored at this point. At the time of this writing, they have committed $87 million next season to 18 players: 11 forwards, five defensemen, and two goaltenders. That leaves a projected $8.7 million to sign or promote one forward and one defenseman from the American Hockey League, with Brock Nelson, Jonathan Drouin, Joel Kiviranta, Ryan Lindgren, and Sam Malinski currently without a contract for next season.
In terms of players currently under contract through next season, the Avalanche could (and should) look to move one or more of those more onerous contracts through trade. Coyle ($5.25 million), Samuel Girard ($5 million), Josh Manson ($4.5 million), Ross Colton ($4 million), and Miles Wood ($2.5 million) are five players who are at or past their peak and did not provide value at their respective cap hits.
That group of five takes up more than $20 million of cap space, and shedding their deals could open up greater possibilities for roster construction. If the front office wants to enact a complete overhaul, the Avalanche could be looking at needing to trade for or sign as many as two centers, two wingers, and two defensemen this summer. While some of the aforementioned names will likely remain in Colorado, a fresh new look is possible without derailing the team’s cap structure.
The defensive core in particular could be in store for a big change as no one other than Devon Toews and Cale Makar should feel safe for the 2025-26 campaign. It’s possible as many as four new names adorn the Avalanche blue line this fall, so let’s dive into three potential additions who won’t break the bank for their services.
Nick Perbix, Tampa Bay Lightning
Given that Manson’s two-way game is in short supply on the Avalanche blue line, trading him for cap relief would require importing some of that style in a younger, more mobile model. Such an option could come in the form of 6-foot-4 right-handed defenseman Nick Perbix, who turns 27 in June and could replace Manson’s impact at a lower cap hit through his prime years.
Perbix is a late-round success story who has played the last three seasons with the Tampa Bay Lightning, mostly in a third-pair role. He ranks 68th among all defensemen in even-strength points (63) since 2022-23 despite playing an average of just under 16 minutes per game in all situations.
The Avalanche would have to lean on their pro scouts to ensure that Perbix could acclimate to a top-four role. He posted strong possession and defensive results when playing away from Emil Lilleberg (his most common defensive partner) at five-on-five, and could see a similar boost if played with a more capable partner, such as Devon Toews or Samuel Girard.
Another consideration is that, if the Avalanche sign Perbix and trade Manson, another acquisition would have to be made to make up for Manson’s high usage on the penalty kill. Perbix has barely played shorthanded minutes over his short NHL career, while Manson has been a regular under head coach Jared Bednar. Toews and Cale Makar are leaned on heavily on the penalty kill, and getting a strong option to give them a break could help them play more at even strength.
Nate Schmidt, Florida Panthers
While Nate Schmidt signed a one-year deal with the Florida Panthers worth $800,000 against the cap hit this season, he could be looking for a multi-year deal carrying a modest raise to around $1.5 to $2 million per year. The soon-to-be 34-year-old has played a depth role on the third pair this season and is having an extraordinary playoffs (seven points in 15 games) as the Panthers look to make it to their third-straight Stanley Cup Final.
Schmidt is several years removed from his peak (three consecutive 30-point seasons from 2017-2020), but he plays a simple game and boasts a strong first pass which helps his team in transition. Schmidt also owns 91 career playoff games to his name, and could add a second appearance in the Stanley Cup Final (first in 2018 with the Vegas Golden Knights) should the Panthers complete a sweep of the Carolina Hurricanes.
If Schmidt fails to win the Cup this season in Florida, he may continue to opt for league minimum deals in his chase of a ring. If he wins, he could go looking for a more lucrative send-off to end his career. It’s easy to imagine him playing on the left side of the third pair beside the much more inexperienced Malinski, and he could move up in a pinch if one of Toews or Girard suffers an injury. Helping his case is the fact that he has played a secondary role on the Panthers’ penalty kill this season, and could help ease the burden on one of the Avalanche’s top defenders in that area.
Dante Fabbro, Columbus Blue Jackets
The third and final option is Dante Fabbro, a right-handed defender who turns 27 in June and was picked 17th overall in the 2016 Draft by the Nashville Predators. He struggled to lock down a spot with the Predators due to inconsistency and injury, and was claimed off waivers by the Columbus Blue Jackets this season.
An elevated role after joining the Blue Jackets helped unlock his offensive game as he set new career-highs in goals (nine) and points (26) in 62 games while ranking third on the team in average ice time across all situations (21:39 per game). The team is clearly a fan of his, and he could likely earn a raise on the $2.5 million he earned this past season.
The Blue Jackets have nearly $40 million in cap space this summer, but will have to plan for big extensions to Dmitri Voronkov, Ivan Provorov, Adam Fantilli, Kent Johnson, Kirill Marchenko, Denton Mateychuk, and Cole Sillinger over the next few seasons. There should be room to keep Fabbro if they want him, but the fact he hasn’t re-signed yet leaves the door open for an exit.
Adding Fabbro would give Colorado a lot of skill redundancy on the blue line, and could lead to a decision where one or both of Girard or Malinski do not return. Working in Fabbro’s favor is that he averaged the second-most minutes on the penalty kill among all Blue Jackets blueliners. That should make him Colorado’s top target in free agency, given their needs.
Avalanche Need to Revamp Blue Line
While the Avalanche have arguably the league’s best defensive pair in the Makar-Toews partnership, the rest of the blue line is in dire need of a refresh.
Manson was crucial in the 2022 Stanley Cup win, but he is on the downswing of his career, and his physicality no longer makes up for his lack of puck-moving ability, especially at a $4.5 million cap hit. Lindgren was acquired to add another dimension to the team’s blue line, but again struggled on the transition side and was targeted by the Dallas Stars in Round 1 due to his lack of mobility. He may also be too expensive for his ideal role.
Erik Johnson – if he returns – is more of a locker room add and depth for the regular season rather than a difference maker on the ice come playoff time. Malinski should have the inside track for a third-pair role as he is both in his prime (he turns 27 in July) and should be inexpensive as a depth defender with restricted free agent (RFA) status.
Girard is the tough one. At his best, he provides an effective puck-moving ability beyond the top pair and has value at $5 million for two more seasons in a rising cap environment. Yet, he might be the first one traded if the front office feels it needs something different on the back-end.
The pieces for an improved six-man defensive group are already there, but how the Avalanche decide to re-arrange the pieces remains to be seen.
