The NHL Entry Draft is just two weeks away, and all but two teams are laser-focused on the event right now. The Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers obviously have other things on their minds. The Colorado Avalanche have had just 11 total picks over the last three drafts. Once again, they have a sparse pool of selections, with just one pick in the first three rounds.
This has become fairly common in Colorado, as the Avs have had just two picks in the first five rounds of the last two drafts combined. They’ve also had just two second-round picks since 2017. They have obviously made it work, and most of the picks they’ve hit on have been phenomenal. Here’s a look at the Avs’ recent draft history, how they’ve turned some draft mediocrity into a contender, and why they need their prospect pool to grow now more than ever.
First-Round Struggles
Before freaking out over the idea that the Avalanche have struggled in the first round, it’s important to note that they have had a bit of smashing success. Going forward from the 2011 Draft when they picked franchise icon Gabriel Landeskog with the second overall pick, they’ve also landed other potential Hall of Famers. Nathan MacKinnon (first overall in 2013), Mikko Rantanen (10th overall in 2015), and Cale Makar (fourth overall in 2017) will all have their numbers hanging in the rafters at Ball Arena someday.
However, since that Landeskog pick, the Avalanche have had 13 first-round selections. Of those 13 first-rounders, only MacKinnon, Rantanen, Makar and Oskar Olausson remain. Olausson was picked 28th overall in the 2021 NHL Entry Draft, and has played just two NHL games in his career. Neither of last season’s first-round selections of Calum Ritchie and Mikhail Gulyayev have inked their initial NHL contract yet. The jury is still out on Olausson, Ritchie, and Gulyayev, but there’s obviously plenty of hope.
That’s not a lot of return on investment, but the Avalanche have been busy at the trade deadline for the last few years. One of the best teams in the NHL over the past five seasons, the Avs have eschewed some of their future potential for talent that can help them win right now. They’ve won a Presidents’ Trophy and a Stanley Cup during that span, so those moves have paid off, but the first round has been unkind to Colorado. To compare to a couple of other successful teams, Edmonton has had 10 first-round picks since 2013, and six of those players are on the roster in this season’s Stanley Cup Final. Florida has had eight first-rounders since 2013, and three of those players are still on the roster.
Avs Front Office Knows When to Cut Losses
Colorado is clearly in win-now mode, and those three superstars the Avs drafted are a big part of that. However, the Avalanche front office has had an uncanny knack for getting the most bang for their busts in trades. In their run to winning the Stanley Cup in 2022, the Avs notably traded Justin Barron (25th overall pick in 2020) to the Montreal Canadiens for Artturi Lehkonen. The Finn has become a fan favorite and one of the most consistent players on the Colorado roster, while Barron has bounced back and forth between the Habs and the American Hockey League’s (AHL) Laval Rocket.
The Avalanche had two first-round picks in 2019 – taking Bowen Byram at fourth overall and Alex Newhook a dozen picks later. Byram was traded to the Buffalo Sabres this season for Casey Mittelstadt in a trade that looks like it may benefit both players and both teams. Newhook was traded to Montreal last summer for a couple of draft picks. One of those picks was Gulyayev, so time will tell what happens with that deal.
There was lots of hype around both Byram and Newhook, but neither performed particularly well in Colorado. Byram was very good for the Avs during the 2022 Playoff run, but the rest of his time in Denver was marked with injuries and sporadic play. Newhook scored 27 goals in three seasons with the Avalanche, and never really was able to fit in or find any consistency. His 19 goals, 15 assists and 34 points in his first season with the Canadiens were all career marks, despite playing in just 55 games, so that deal appears to be working out for Newhook, too.
Other first-round picks dealt in the nick of time were Tyson Jost (10th pick in 2016) and Martin Kaut (16th pick in 2018). Jost was shipped to the Minnesota Wild at the 2022 Trade Deadline for Nico Sturm, who contributed during Colorado’s Cup run that season. Jost was waived after 33 games with Minnesota. Kaut was dealt in January 2023 to the San Jose Sharks in a deal that brought Matt Nieto to Colorado. Nieto managed nine points in just 36 games with Colorado, but that was three more points than Kaut scored in four seasons in Denver.
Avalanche Need Draft Success
Going through the draft picks of any team is going to show hits and misses, but teams need their first-round picks to land. Their cheap salaries enable you to keep the stars around, and that’s the issue Colorado is bumping into right now. Big extensions for Landeskog, MacKinnon, Makar, Nichushkin, Lehkonen, and Devon Toews were certainly warranted, yet put the team in a very tight salary cap situation. It doesn’t stop there. Rantanen is entering the final year of his deal, and is in line for a big payday after scoring 97 goals while putting back-to-back 100-point seasons together over the last two campaigns.
While the NHL Draft differs in depth and talent from season to season, it still remains largely a crapshoot. Guys like Pavel Datsyuk (171st overall in 1998) and Joe Pavelski (205th overall in 2003) sometimes slip through the cracks, and the first round is loaded with busts. The Avalanche have experienced both highs and lows with their first-round selections, but they need to start building a better pipeline of prospects. They’re obviously in a championship window now, but their farm system ranks amongst the thinnest in the NHL.
The sad thing about championship windows is that they don’t last very long, and they typically close before most fans and organizations are ready to admit it. The Avalanche have some sparkling homegrown gems that put them in this position. However, if they want to keep that window open even longer, some of these prospects are going to have to come through. All signs point to Ritchie and Gulyayev being decent prospects, but they’re not even under contract yet. Staying at the top is difficult in the NHL, and Colorado has done well to remain there this long. Thanks to the salary cap, it’s the draft picks that are going to have to keep it going. Otherwise, Avs fans might see that championship window close much earlier than expected.
