Avalanche Mailbag 1.0: Gambling with Necas, EJ and Kiviranta Updates, Goaltending Tandem, & More

The first half of the August Mailbag is here.

Question from Neil Bergin

We’re into August now and still no Necas news. Do you think they will move him before the season if they can’t get a deal done?

Aarif’s Response

I know I’ve answered this before, but I feel like my thoughts on the matter have shifted just a little bit.

In the past, I was of the opinion that the Avs just can’t let Martin Necas play this season without an extension, just given how things ended with Mikko Rantanen last year. And maybe they’re actually thinking this.

But now? I’m not entirely against it. Simply because, there are a ton of pending UFA’s entering their final season, and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that we could see a big trade or two during the year. Remember those Mitch Marner for Rantanen rumors between Carolina and Toronto? That would’ve happened if Marner didn’t have a no-trade clause built into his contract.

So, if Necas isn’t signed, let the season begin with him. I don’t think he’s the kind of player that’s going to let it affect his play. He’s a confident guy. If you get to a point where you think you’re going to lose him for nothing, then start entertaining trade offers, but this time, let teams negotiate a contract at the time of the deal to increase his value.

Maybe he ends up on a young rebuilding team with cap space like the Philadelphia Flyers. Or maybe you can pull off one of those Marner for Rantanen type of trades. For example, what if the L.A. Kings can’t get Adrian Kempe locked up either? Would that be a worthwhile trade for both teams?

It’s a gamble, but this front office has proven time and time again that they’re not against taking those risks. They just need to learn from past mistakes and actually work with the player this time to increase his value. Necas with an extension is worth more to another team than Necas without one. But that’s assuming that he’s willing to sign with anyone before July 1.

In the end, the best scenario is for him to sign an extension with the Avs soon, and we can move forward without this uncertainty.

Question from Doug

Is EJ going to retire, will the Avs bring him back at league minimum, or might he sign elsewhere?

Aarif’s Response

This is speculation on my part, but I can’t see Erik Johnson signing elsewhere this time around. I think he’s back in Denver and wants to stay here. Best case, he signs and remains on the team as an extra. Lord knows, injuries are going to happen and you’ll need EJ quite a bit.

If the Avs don’t bring him back, perhaps he retires and accepts a different job within the organization, whether in hockey ops or perhaps T.V.

Question from Clyde

Are you of the opinion that with the Lumber Yard here for the start of the season, the Avs will get out the gate with a lot better start with a reliable goaltending tandem?

Aarif’s Response

Yes. Absolutely. Between the goaltending, having Gabe Landeskog back full-time, Brock Nelson as 2C, and better defense depth, I think this year is going to start much better. You also have a healthy Artturi Lehkonen from the first day and Valeri Nichushkin not serving a suspension.

Last year the top six on opening night was Nathan MacKinnon, Rantanen, Jonathan Drouin, Nikolai Kovalenko, Calum Ritchie, and Casey Mittelstadt. It’s crazy that only one of these guys is still on the team.

Question from Glendon Gulliver

Gabriel Landeskog had a good playoff with 1 G, 3 A, 4 P in 5 games. Besides being able to play the whole season, how well do you think he needs to play to now justify his $7 million salary? Does he need to play well enough to be on the second line, or will it be okay if his play moves him to the third line? What do you think he needs to provide offensively? 20 goals? 50 points?

Aarif’s Response

It’s easier to answer these questions after seeing what Landeskog was able to do in his return during the playoffs. I do think 50 points is the bare minimum given that he’ll likely be a full-time top-six guy and on the top power play.

Unless he completely falls off, like I’m talking an epic meltdown where he’s no longer got “it,” I don’t think his contract will be an issue. The rising cap also helps. Like right now, whether Landeskog is making $5 million, $6 million or $7 million, the Avs still have cap space and some other depth roster players they can move to create more. I’m not too concerned about his contract anymore.

Again, this is all because we saw what he could do in five games during a physical playoff series after missing three years. It’s easier to play the “what if” after seeing that small sample size.

Question from Greg Hadden

Can the Avs offer Joel Kiviranta a PTO (professional tryout) since they have before? Can they offer him a two-way contract? And, if so, have they or why haven’t they?

Aarif’s Response

They can offer him anything. There are no rules against a player taking another PTO or a two-way deal as a veteran.

I can’t say for sure why he hasn’t signed anywhere yet, but given that it’s been over a month since free agency began, and he’s still out there, it makes me think the Avs are holding firm on an offer and Kiviranta’s camp is trying to get more from them or another team.

We’ll see what ends up happening, but if this is actually the case, I do appreciate the front office not blowing through their cap space just because they have it. Saving a few hundred thousand dollars here and there goes a long way around the trade deadline.

Hey, maybe they have bigger ideas in mind. We shall see.

Question from Jared Williss

Who is traded first, Sam Girard or Ross Colton?

Aarif’s Response

This is a tough question to answer because I can make a case for both.

Ross Colton: I can see him being traded first if the Avs acquire another 3C with a sizable cap hit, and they don’t want their third line to have two expensive players on it. This is the same reason why I thought he’d be traded when the offseason began, because I didn’t think Charlie Coyle would be the one on the move.

Samuel Girard: If they’re still trying to acquire a third high-priced defenseman to play big minutes, then Girard would probably be the first to go. Josh Manson is locked up at just under $4 million for the foreseeable future already. So I can’t see Girard at $5 million also fitting in with three guys making more than him. Again, this is assuming they actually get someone else at a higher cap hit to play a larger role.

Both Colton and Girard have two years remaining on their contracts. Maybe neither ends up getting traded in the end. Doubtful, but possible.