On the surface, the Colorado Avalanche made a pretty baffling decision last week (Jan. 24). Trading an in-his-prime franchise legend like Mikko Rantanen doesn’t usually go over well in the eyes of public opinion. The Carolina Hurricanes were glad to be the recipient.
But could the Avalanche be an outlier? Here are a few specifics of why the addition of Martin Necas (and Jack Drury) was a masterful choice by general manager Chris MacFarland.
Necas & Avalanche May Be a Perfect Match
One thing that immediately intrigued me about the Necas trade was his stylistic fit in Colorado. In my eyes, he possesses two superstar traits: zone-entry ability and playmaking.
With zone-entry hounds Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar already on the roster, I was curious how much Colorado would utilize that skillset. As it turns out, Necas is already a go-to guy on entries. He introduced the Avalanche faithful to his talent against the New York Islanders:
That’s probably the biggest benefit of this trade. Instead of having MacKinnon do all the work, entries can run through Necas. Seeing as he also has elite vision and passing ability, getting the puck over to MacKinnon was not a challenge. With the puck on the stick of a generational talent in a miniature 2-on-1 situation, a goal resulted—that’ll happen often.
This completely changes the dynamic of the Avalanche’s offense. Necas’ presence on MacKinnon’s line gets one of the best players in the world puck touches in dangerous situations, exemplified by the goal above. That’s not to say he wasn’t before, but MacKinnon may be an even greater threat in the offensive zone than he used to be.
Albeit in a small sample size, that’s been true to this point. Here’s MacKinnon at 5-on-5 this season with Necas (51:10 of ice time) versus Rantanen (617:25 of ice time):
Ideally, you’d have Necas playing with MacKinnon for the dangerous puck-touch aspect. But he can truly play anywhere in the lineup, proven by being on a 92-point pace with the Hurricanes despite playing 78.73% of his 5-on-5 ice time next to Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Eric Robinson. All the credit to those two, but high-end producers don’t spend that much time next to third-line forwards.
Necas has thrived in those kinds of situations, so there was no real need to change it, even if his production probably suffered. Knowing this, the Avalanche can either continue the path they’re on or experiment a bit. If they want to activate Casey Mittelstadt, for example, that’s on the table. If the partnership with MacKinnon continues to dazzle, then keep it. There are no wrong options here.
Why Necas Was a Smart Pivot
In most cases, it’s not a good idea to trade a player who can be the face of a franchise like Rantanen. But the Avalanche seem to be the exception here.
For one, you have the money part of it all. Collectively, Necas and Drury are making $8.225 million against the salary cap this season, which is less collectively than Rantanen’s $9.25 million cap hit on his own. With his deal expiring in the offseason and the other two being under contract for 2025-26, there’s a “run it back” aspect in play.
Having the extra money (and player) helps a lot. This season at 5-on-5, the Avalanche have been outscored 65-45 when neither MacKinnon nor Rantanen have been on the ice. Utilizing 27 different forwards before February will cause that, to be fair—they were asking non-NHLers to play well above their capabilities. The early-season injury rush has cooled down, but that doesn’t mean a few upgrades aren’t necessary.
With just a little more cap space at their disposal for this season and the next, that can come in handy for bolstering the depth. The Florida Panthers’ third-line addition of Vladimir Tarasenko at the 2024 trade deadline was the last piece they needed to win the Stanley Cup—the Avalanche may be in a similar boat.
This plays into the money bit a tad, but trading Rantanen was simply a pivot. Despite being one of the very few players who could theoretically will a team to a championship, his abilities were needed less and less over time. With the transcendent talent of MacKinnon and Makar, it’s reasonable to trade a player who may be the NHL’s highest-paid winger in a few months.
It’s not anything he did wrong—Rantanen fell victim to a numbers game. With only one puck to go around, he wasn’t being maximized. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes can make him the engine of their offense. Still, it’s not like the Avalanche “lost” the deal. They’re just going in a different direction. Considering what Necas provides to their offense, there’s nothing wrong with the path they chose. In fact, it’s kind of brilliant.
How the Avalanche Can Be a Better Playoff Team
I won’t be redundant with the “improving depth” point, but it’s worth reiterating here. High-talent teams can get away with icing ineffective depth during the regular season since their top-end players give them that much of an advantage. That changes in the postseason, however.
When every team has elite players, the advantage grows thinner than usual. Having better depth than the opposition isn’t essential, but it becomes more important to address. You also can’t avoid playing them altogether, because the data says that skaters are vastly outshot after about 40 seconds in their shift. Overworking the top guys isn’t an option. This deal makes that possible, at least in the short term.
Focusing on Necas, I believe his strengths can be advantageous in a playoff run. The postseason is evidently more physical than the regular season, and scoring chances are a bit harder to come by. Elite offensive teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs struggle to adapt at times, losing their identity in the process and playing like something they aren’t.
However, I think Necas’ offensive game could be crucial for the Avalanche. As we’ve established, he’s almost unstoppable on zone entries. With lanes clogged and physicality preached, only a select few players can maintain this ability in the playoffs—he is one of them. Entering the zone with the puck is a key factor in winning hockey games, and that remains true in the postseason. It’s how offense is created.
Having more offensive zone possessions for someone like MacKinnon (or just in general) is how the Avalanche can go deep in the playoffs. In 2024, I think they ran into some trouble in that department against the Dallas Stars. Let’s focus on the 2-1 double-overtime loss that ended their season.
From my eye test, MacKinnon didn’t stand out in that must-win Game 6. In all situations, he was fourth among Colorado forwards in on-ice expected goals and tied for fourth in individual expected goals. He was first in total ice time.
MacKinnon didn’t win the Hart Trophy in a race with two 140-point scorers for no reason. His value was immense. If he had one game where he wasn’t all over the ice, that was Dallas’ chance to win. They seized the opportunity.
Improved depth and making MacKinnon a better player is what can take the Avalanche from a second-round exit to a Stanley Cup. We need more of a sample to see if the Necas deal accomplishes that, but there’s a chance it does. When all is said and done, MacFarland may look like a genius—not a fool.
