The Chicago Bears finished last season with a dismal 7-10 record that bagged them a third place finish in the NFC North. But a won-loss record can sometimes be deceiving. When really digging through some numbers, it’s apparent that the Bears weren’t THAT bad.
In reality, Chicago was a team operating at three-quarters or, maybe more correctly, they were a team OF three quarters.
NFL analyst Warren Sharp crunched some numbers that show just how “not bad” the team was and how, with the slightest of tweaks– a one-quarter improvement, actually– the Bears could morph into one of the better teams in the league.
Chicago Bears: Three-Quarters Excellent
Photo Credit: theathletic.com
Per Alyssa Barbieri of Bears Wire:
“Warren Sharp broke down the Bears’ performance last season, highlighting how bad they were closing out games in the fourth quarter…
If you look at Chicago’s performance in the first three quarters alone, they would’ve finished with a 10-6-1 record, which would’ve been the eighth most wins in the NFL. The Bears also outgained opposing teams by 430 yards and ranked 10th in total line of scrimmage EPA (offense and defense) through three quarters.
By comparison, the fourth quarter was a disaster. They had -50.7 total EPA (worst in the NFL), 14 turnovers (most), 10 interceptions (most), were outgained by 446 yards (second worst) and ultimately finished with the worst record in the NFC North (7-9).”
Barbieri would also point out the Bears’ dubious distinction of having lost six games last season by just one score, with three of those blown wins coming in the fourth quarter.
The Bad is Fixable
But, yeah, as bad as all that was, it’s actually something that’s fixable– fixable with a quality quarterback keeping a steady hand in the closing of the game and an offensive scheme that facilitates that quarterback’s success.
Many would argue that the Bears have that in place right now with the addition of no. 1 draft pick Caleb Williams and the crew built around him by general manager Ryan Poles, including new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron.
A New Culture in Chicago
NFL Network’s Stacey Dales talked about this positive dynamic in a recent appearance on The Rich Eisen Show, emphasizing how all parties in Chicago seem fully invested in turning the Bears into winners.
“Caleb Williams is walking into a situation…with a team [with supreme confidence in him]…It’s how much of a buy-in we’ve seen from both sides,” Dales remarked. “Ryan Poles said ‘that’s gonna be our guy, Caleb Williams, and we’re gonna have to go out and make sure this roster is so good for him that, even if he plays average…we’ll still be really good and we’ll be in contention to get to the playoffs and advance.’ And if you look at this roster, with Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen and DJ Moore and Cole Kmet, D’Andre Swift and then that defense, which I think is really good…they could actually be pretty good in Chicago.
“So, I think they’ve set him up for success and I think both sides are ‘all in’ on the other.”
Caleb Williams is THAT Guy
And if success depends on Williams just being average or better, then all signs point to a nice, pleasant season in Chicago. Because, by almost all accounts, Caleb Williams is far beyond average.
“He’s special and whoever gets him will have a franchise-altering type of talent,” an unnamed NFC scout was quoted as saying about Williams in a late March ESPN article.
In that same piece, NFL draft analyst Jordan Reid goes on to explain why he believes the 22-year-old is a special talent:
“Williams had ups and downs over the course of his junior season but still showcased No. 1-pick-caliber traits,” Reid wrote. “His arm strength, accuracy and improvisational skills have him sitting atop the quarterback rankings and scouts see him as one of the best QB prospects of the past decade. What makes him so special? He always has an answer, no matter the defensive structure presented to him.”
So, at the end of the day, “fixing” the Bears could be as simple as fixing just one-quarter of their game and keeping their performances consistent.
Of course, it’s not really as simple as that. But the analysis above DOES show just how close the Bears may be to turning things around. And the team has added enough, fortified itself enough, to enable a quick turnaround.
Now the Bears just have to take it all to the field and execute.
