NFL playoff tiebreakers determine which teams with matching records make the postseason. That's their first and most important function. They also have the ability to tell us which teams have impressed the most when digging deep into the complexities of their records.
Divisional Record, Conference Record, and Strength of Schedule are all on the front lines, but they are not alone. Strength of Victory has the ability to determine playoff eligibility, and in simple terms, tell us if a team has beaten good teams.
It doesn't say very good things about the Cincinnati Bengals right now.
Bengals' Strength of Victory is embarrassingly low
Strength of Victory (SoV) is the combined winning percentage of the teams that the club in question has defeated. It's the clearest way of determining the quality of your wins.
Through seven games, the 3-4 Bengals have a SoV of just .190. It's the lowest SoV among 21 teams with at least three wins, and the second-lowest in the entire NFL. The New York Jets are saving them from the last-place title at .154.
That's what happens when you have three wins against teams with a combined four wins.
Cincinnati started the season 0-3 and got its first win over the Carolina Panthers, who were 1-2 at the time. The Panthers have lost three-straight since that meeting and sit at 1-6. Wins over the New York Giants and Cleveland Browns would follow for the Bengals, and those two teams are now 2-5 and 1-6, respectively.
Combine those record and you get 4-17, and a winning percentage of .190.
Despite winning three of their last four games, it's difficult to start taking the Bengals seriously if they're just getting by teams who are clearly worse than them. The Athletic's Week 8 power rankings reflected this sentiment by dropping them two spots after their close win over the Browns:
"Who knows what to make of the Bengals? Joe Burrow is having one of his best seasons. His expected points added per dropback this season (.16) is the best of his career. On plays with a passing attempt, the Bengals’ EPA (67.78) is the second best in the league. And yet, three wins over three teams with four combined wins is not impressing anybody." - The Athletic's Josh Kendall
Just one win over the Kansas City Chiefs (6-0), Washington Commanders (5-2), or Baltimore Ravens (5-2) would add a needed bullet point for the Bengals' 2024 resume, but all three teams were able to skate by them. There may be proof that Cincinnati can compete with the elites, but nothing about actually beating them. Fortunately, they will have their chances in the coming weeks.
Opportunities ahead for the Bengals
Three of the Bengals' next five games will be against teams with winning records as of this posting. The 4-2 Philadelphia Eagles come to town this weekend, the Ravens will still be above .500 in Week 10, and the currently 5-2 Pittsburgh Steelers will be waiting for them after their bye in Week 13. The Los Angeles Chargers are 3-3 as of now and could be a winning team in Week 11 when they play the Bengals as well.
Quite the proving ground over the next month.
The Bengals have successfully bought themselves time with their recent wins, but they haven't bought much confidence that they'll use this added time effectively. Defeating good teams to raise their SoV will not only help them out in potential tie-breaking situations, it will instill confidence that they can take down the teams they'd meet in January.
This is the road they signed up for. Now's the time to traverse it.
