The Denver Broncos have a lot going for them entering the 2025 season. Finally off the schneid, the Broncos are coming off a playoff season with an ascending quarterback and a defense that is being projected as the NFL's No. 1 unit.
That creates a level of expectation that the young Broncos will have to live up to, but under the stewardship of a veteran head coach like Sean Payton, there is every reason for optimism. On the flip side, NFL history is littered with teams that have been hyped in the offseason only to fall flat on their faces come the regular season.
Mainly due to Payton's presence, I don't expect that to happen. But there's no doubt that in order for the Broncos to reach the next level and meet the expectations, Payton's offense has to take the next step after an encouraging 2024 campaign.
Let's examine the best and worst-case scenario each player on the Broncos' projected starting offense. You'll see that two running backs are included because Payton deploys the running-back-by-committee approach, where the starter in each game is utterly determined by the game plan and his scripted first 15-20 plays, which are opponent-specific.
Bo Nix | QB
Best-Case Scenario:
After passing for 3,775 yards and 29 touchdowns as a rookie, rewriting the Broncos' record books, surpassing what he produced in 2024 will be no mean feat. It's not exactly fait accompli.
Again, though, Nix's not-so-secret weapon is Payton's coaching, design, and play-calling. On the heels of that impressive rookie showing, I could see Nix surpassing 4,500 passing yards and tossing 35 touchdowns in Year 2.
Worst-Case Scenario:
In the event that the Broncos' good fortune over the past two years changes, and the injury bug takes a bite out of the offense, I could see Nix struggling to reach the same statistical numbers he produced as a rookie. I view this as a very unlikely possibility, though, because under the Payton regime, the Broncos have become one of NFL's best at keeping their players on the field.
Nix didn't escape his rookie year unscathed. He suffered broken vertebrae in his back, which he played through, and underwent minor ankle surgery this offseason, which is why he declined his invitation as an alternate to participate in the Pro Bowl Games.
There's also no guarantee that the Broncos' moves this offseason to upgrade the ground game will succeed. I like their chances, but if it all falls on Nix once again to be the superhero, or if misfortune strikes him, his offensive line, or any of Denver's key skill-position players, I could see the second-year quarterback passing for 3,500 yards and 23 touchdowns.
That would still be a solid season putting it in the top 15 best quarterback showings in franchise history. Not a bad floor for Nix in Year 2.
RJ Harvey | RB
Best-Case Scenario:
A resounding success for the second-round rookie would be to produce the Broncos' first individual 1,000-yard rushing season since Phillip Lindsay in 2019. Harvey and the Las Vegas Raiders' sixth-overall draft pick Ashton Jeanty were the two most explosive running backs in college football last year, which was a big reason why Payton coveted both.
Throw in Harvey's upside as a potential 'joker' out of the backfield — a pass-catching running back who can create mismatches — and the rookie's ceiling is so high, you have to squint. However, we must resist the urge to get too far out over our skis, as he is a rookie, after all.
If all goes perfectly according to plan, I could see Harvey rushing for 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns, chipping in an additional 500 receiving yards and five scores through the air. More likely, though, he rushes for just shy of 1,000, but scores double-digit touchdowns from scrimmage.
Worst-Case Scenario:
If Harvey struggles to pick up the offense, or if the next guy we'll talk about simply out-earns him from a touch-share perspective, his role might not be nearly as expansive as a rookie. Would it be a total shock to see him finish the 2025 season with 500 rushing yards and a couple of touchdowns? No.
Based on what we've seen from Harvey thus far, and what we know about him as a player, I wouldn't expect him to be relegated to secondary role.
J.K. Dobbins | RB
Best-Case Scenario:
Dobbins brings a 5.2 yards-per-carry career average to the table, which ranks second among all NFL players with at least 452 carries since 2020. We can expect him to comprise half of Denver's one-two punch at running back, but it's too early to say whether he'll be the first or the second guy.
ESPN's Mike Clay projects a 700-yard rushing season for Dobbins, along with 193 receiving yards and six total touchdowns. Add 200 yards to that projection, and you have the best-case scenario for the sixth-year veteran.
Worst-Case Scenario:
I hate to even think it, let alone write it, but if another injury befalls Dobbins, his impact on offense could be a fraction of what he's capable of. Something in the ballpark of 400 yards and a couple of touchdowns.
Fingers crossed that the Broncos will be able to keep him on the field for a full 17-game season for the first time in his career.
Evan Engram | TE
Best-Case Scenario:
As we can see from the first three players mentioned after Nix, the Broncos invested resources into his supporting cast. The two-time Pro Bowler was signed to be Payton's 'joker' at tight end, that mismatch weapon, and a reliable target underneath for Nix.
Engram is a special player when healthy, and as a veteran with eight years of NFL experience, we could see him hit the ground running in Denver with Payton calling the plays and Nix throwing the ball. Something like 110 receptions for 950 yards and half-a-dozen touchdowns.
Worst-Case Scenario:
Again, I hate to bring up injuries, but that's the only thing I could see derailing Engram's first year in Denver. He's dealt with many before, including a couple last season.
If he struggles to stay on the field, we could see Engram produce a 50-catch season where he totals just 400 yards and a score or two. Here's to hoping that Denver's elite player wellness/strength and conditioning program will stave off the injury bug.
Courtland Sutton | WR
Best-Case Scenario
In 2023, Sutton caught double-digit touchdowns for the first and only time in his career. Last season, he eclipsed the 1,000-yard receiving mark with Nix for just the second time as a pro.
If it all comes together for Sutton, I could see him having the best of both marks, eclipsing 1,300 receiving yards with 12 touchdowns. He and Nix already have a special bond, and Engram's presence will help draw attention away from Sutton, which should free him up for more one-on-one situations.
Worst-Case Scenario:
Before Nix arrived, Sutton had a three-year stretch where he averaged 792 receiving yards after he'd recovered from the torn ACL he suffered in 2020. As a floor, that sounds about right for Sutton: 60 receptions for 792 yards and three touchdowns.
Marvin Mims Jr. | WR
Best-Case Scenario:
What if what we saw from Mims down the stretch is the new status quo? If so, he would become one of the most productive and dynamic receivers in the NFL.
If we took Mims' final five games of last season and extrapolated it over the course of a full 17-game campaign, he'd finish with 1,159 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns. Let's call that the best-case scenario for the former second-round pick this year.
Worst-Case Scenario:
Mims could revert back to the mean, struggled to get consistently involved in the passing game, and produce another 400 or 500-yard season. It seemed as if something clicked for him late last season, so I'm hopeful that his usage in the offense continues apace.
Devaughn Vele | WR
Best-Case Scenario:
Vele finished as Denver's third-leading receiver last year behind Sutton and Mims. But he obviously didn't rest on his laurels this offseason, showing up to the offseason training program in fine form and dropping jaws among media observers.
We know how much Payton covets big-bodied receivers on the boundary, which is why Vele projects as the most likely No. 2 this year. If it all goes according to plan, a world in which Vele nearly doubles his rookie production, finishing with 80 receptions for 900 yards and six touchdowns, doesn't sound that far-fetched.
Worst-Case Scenario:
Once again, I have to throw the injury concern into the conversation. Vele dealt with a rib injury last year, which caused him to miss games, and he was absent from the Broncos' mandatory minicamp last month with a lower-leg issue.
Payton has assured us that Vele will be good to go by training camp, but if the injury bug lingers, other receivers could rise above him, and his role could be diminished. Considering the guys nipping at his heels, like the second-year Troy Franklin and rookie Pat Bryant, any setback could lead to a far lesser impact in 2025.
