Before the season began, this week's game between the San Francisco 49ers and Buffalo Bills looked daunting.
The 49ers were coming off a Super Bowl appearance and the Bills had all the look of a team that would regress.
But the season hasn't really gone the way people predicted for either team.
This week, Buffalo hopes to clinch a fifth-straight AFC East title, and NFL experts predict another victory to keep the Bills rolling.
While the 49ers look like an easy opponent, San Francisco's health could be a major factor in the game, warns one NFL expert. If they get back the right players, the Bills will be facing a much tougher game against a playoff-level team desperate to keep their hopes alive.
All that being said, the 9-2 Bills are 7-point favorites over the 5-6 49ers, according to BetMGM. The money line is Bills -300 (bet $300 to win $100) and 49ers +240 (bet $100 to win $240). The over-under is 45.5 points.
Here's what our weekly roundup of experts found:
Democrat and Chronicle: Bills 27, 49ers 23
Sal Maiorana writes: "If Miami loses Thursday (Dolphins predictions here), the Bills will take the field with a chance to wrap up their fifth consecutive AFC East title. If Miami wins, that’s all the more reason for the Bills — who have to go on the road to the Rams and Lions after this — to want to take care of business and keep the Dolphins on the brink of extinction in the division race.
"San Francisco’s health will be a major factor. It’s too early in the week to guess at whether Purdy, Williams, Ward and Bosa can return, but there are indications that all four of them will do so, making Buffalo’s task much more difficult than Green Bay’s was. Still, the Bills are at home where they’re 5-0 this season and 32-6 since the start of 2020, and that could prove to be the eventual difference."
The Arizona Republic: Bills 31, 49ers 20
Jeremy Cluff writes: "At one point, we thought this game might end up being a Super Bowl preview, but the 49ers are not holding up their end this season. The struggles will continue for San Francisco against Josh Allen and the Bills in Buffalo."
ESPN: Odds favor Bills
ESPN Analytics gives the Bills a 61.3% shot at winning. For perspective, ESPN gave the Bills a slightly better chance of beating (63%) the Seattle Seahawks back in October.
Dimers: Bills 26, 49ers 20
The website writes "After extensive simulations, our model gives the 49ers a win probability of 27%, while the Bills have a win probability of 73%."
Bill Wolcott is a producer who helps cover the Buffalo Bills, high school and Rochester sports in general. The lifelong New Yorker has been a journalist for 30 years.
