The Chicago Blackhawks have to worry about getting into the playoffs before winning playoff games, but signing Mitch Marner to a massive long-term extension could very well come with a big downside.
Mitch Marner ( John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images)
Marner, like the rest of the core four on the Toronto Maple Leafs, are much better in games 1-4 than they are in games 5-7 when the series could be on the line or the series could be closed out. Marner in particular has one goal and 11 points in 24 games when it is games 5-7 in a series while having 12 goals and 51 points in 44 games between games 1-4.
None of the young Blackhawks that will be part of the team that eventually gets to the playoffs have played in those types of games in the NHL. But when they do, the expectation will be that each player will raise his game and not disappear later in series.
The contract projection for Marner is around $13 million AAV. If the Blackhawks are willing to give him that much while knowing these stats and watching him play, there is a serious problem. Assuming that not much will change from Toronto to Chicago come playoff time, this will be a burden on the Blackhawks who are building the pieces to have many deeper playoff runs.
Essentially wasting a ton of money on a playoff ghost when it really matters won't get the Blackhawks very far. The money Marner will make will restrict some better sustained depth pieces to be in place and potentially bring down everyone around him.
I'm sure that a switch can be flipped for Marner, but we haven't seen it yet. It is something to be very wary about for the Blackhawks as they need a big addition, but not the wrong one.
