Bo Nix Faces Slight Dip in ESPN’s 2025 Projections—but Still Outshines Herbert, Matches Allen

Former Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix is heading into his second season in the NFL. Nix was drafted in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft by the Denver Broncos with the No. 12 overall pick.

As a rookie, Nix and the Broncos finished the season with a 10-7 record, making the playoffs. Nix developed throughout his rookie year, finishing the regular season with 29 touchdowns. Nix also had four rushing touchdowns. 

ESPN’s Mike Clay made a stat projection for all 32 teams ahead of the 2025 NFL season. In Clay’s projection for the Denver Broncos, Nix will pass for 3,431 yards and 24 touchdowns, five less than last season. He has Nix rushing for just 363 yards, 67 fewer yards than last season, and three touchdowns. 

Dec 28, 2024; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) stands on the sidelines during the second half against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-Imagn Images / Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

Although it is discouraging for Broncos fans to see Nix projected to take a step back in 2025, Clay’s stats have Nix throwing just as many touchdowns as Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. He also has Nix throwing more touchdown passes than Los Angeles Chargers and former Ducks quarterback Justin Herbert. 

An important note is that Clay’s stat projections are based on 15 games. If Nix plays all 17 games of the regular season, he might have a much better performance than the projections indicate. Nix is heading into his second season, where he will look to make a jump. 

While Nix did not start his rookie season with many passing touchdowns, he consistently improved throughout the season. In his final ten games, Nix passed for 24 touchdowns. He finished the season with a completion percentage of 66.3 percent, passing for 3,775 yards. He threw just 12 interceptions.

Nix exceeded expectations after being seen as a reach of a first-round draft pick by Denver coach Sean Payton and the Broncos. The former Ducks quarterback shut down the criticism in year one, bringing the Broncos to their first playoff appearance since the 2015 season.

At the annual owners meeting in the spring, Payton praised the team’s turnaround in 2024, crediting Nix for playing a crucial role in the success.

“I think we’re a team players want to play for,” Payton said. “I think a lot of that is a result of some of the early success we had last year with the young quarterback.”

Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) turns to look for an open receiver during the first half of the Buffalo Bills wild card game against the Denver Broncos at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Jan. 12, 2025. / Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

“It all starts with ownership and the head coach, then, obviously, when you have a young quarterback, players want to be here,” Payton continued

Denver will have its top three receivers from 2024, Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims Jr., and Devaughn Vele. With Nix heading into year two and a full offseason with his receivers, the unit should be able to pick up right where they left off. The Broncos will also have all five starting offensive linemen returning to the team.

While Clay is projecting Nix to take a slight step back in year two, he also has the Broncos finishing as the No. 5 seed in the AFC. The Broncos were aggressive in free agency and filled holes through the 2025 NFL Draft. Nix has not yet reached his potential but will look to take another step in year two and lead the Broncos to back-to-back playoff runs.