As a rookie, Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix had one of the best statistical seasons of any rookie quarterback ever. For some reason, many media members and analysts are dismissing his stats from the 2024 season and ranking Nix much lower than expected going into his sophomore season.
There is an issue with Nix ranking as the No. 19 quarterback in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. The guys doing the rankings aren't digging deep enough to truly understand how good Nix was in his first season.
Overall, stats can be misleading, and perhaps that's why Nix is being overlooked. However, if one is to isolate the situations that separate good passers from the average, a quarterback’s real talent starts to shine.
Nix's Red-Zone Efficiency
Specifically, how do they perform in the red zone? Nix’s ability in that area of the field separated him even further from the average quarterback.
Gridiron Intelligence has already performed the analysis across all qualifying quarterbacks. They isolated quarterback-driven plays by only selecting red-zone plays where the air yards are greater than or equal to the yards to go. That removed the plays where a teammate made a play, making the passer look better.
Success in that analysis is the touchdown rate, which is calculated by the number of touchdown passes divided by the number of attempted passes. To further add light to the qualifying quarterbacks, GI added in interceptions divided by pass attempts.
Out of the 29 qualifying passers, Nix ranked seventh with a 36.6% touchdown rate. Nix was ahead of elite quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow.
Low Turnover Rate
Nix was careful with the football, too. His interception rate was 2.4%, ranking him 12th. That was ahead of Mahomes, as well. These numbers indicate that Nix is money when it matters most, revealing even more how misguided the dismissal of his solid rookie season is.
2025 Outlook
What does this mean for the 2025 season? Those afraid of a sophomore slump shouldn't worry.
Nix is a fanatic in preparation, learning, and improving his game. He lives and breathes football. He is also in his second season with head coach Sean Payton. Nix should be able to play better in his complex offense.
On top of that, the offensive line should be better. The continuity of the same starting five in their second full season together will pay dividends. Center Luke Wattenberg will be better with a full season of starting experience under his belt. That alone should push the offensive line to a better performance.
The Broncos added a dynamic tight end to the offense when they signed free agent Evan Engram. That was a significant missing piece on the team last season.
The running game will be massively better, and that will keep defenses guessing and improve the distance to go in the red zone. Finally, the wide receiver group should be improved. The second-year Devaughn Vele has NFL experience now, and the Broncos started to figure out how best to use Marvin Mims Jr. down the stretch last season.
The Takeaway
Instead of Nix being the only playmaker on offense like last season, there will be multiple options. This points to a better offense and a more potent scoring machine.
I would project that next season, Nix will be in the mid 40% touchdown rate, which will more than likely rank him in the top five of all quarterbacks in an updated red-zone analysis. The future looks bright for Nix and the Broncos.
