Brandon Saad signs with Golden Knights — Where will he fit? What might be bring?

The Vegas Golden Knights signed veteran forward Brandon Saad to a one-year contract worth $1.5 million, the team announced Friday.

The signing comes two days after Saad and the St. Louis Blues mutually agreed to terminate his contract, which carried a cap hit of $4.5 million through the 2025-26 season. The 14-year NHL veteran chose to surrender the remaining $5.4 million on that deal for the chance to join another NHL team after the Blues waived him on Wednesday, and he’ll get that opportunity in Las Vegas.

This seems like a positive outcome for all three parties involved. The Blues were able to shed the remaining cap hit on Saad’s deal, the Golden Knights added a solid winger with scoring potential, and Saad avoided the minors to join a contender.

The 32-year-old left winger won the Stanley Cup twice with the Chicago Blackhawks, in 2013 and 2015. He played a considerable role in those championship runs – now a decade removed – but has had a decline in offensive production this season with the Blues. So, why did the Blues opt to part ways with Saad, and what does he bring to the Golden Knights?

Saad struggled this season in St. Louis, registering only seven goals and 16 points in 43 games. That includes a hat trick against the Senators on Jan. 3 and a pair of multi-goal games earlier in the season. That means Saad has played 40 games this season without a goal. All of this from a player who scored 26 goals last season, and at least 18 goals in each of the last 10 seasons (excluding the shortened 2020-21 season, when he scored 15).

Saad also has a minus-14 rating this season, the worst of any player on the Blues. St. Louis was outscored 30-19 with Saad on the ice at even strength, and he was a healthy scratch five times this season.

While it’s clear Saad isn’t the player he once was, it does appear he’s the victim of some poor luck. His 9.3 shooting percentage this season is incredibly low compared to his history. Saad is a 12.7 percent shooter over his career, and hadn’t shot below 15 percent in the five previous seasons. He’s actually generating more offense than he had in prior seasons; the puck just isn’t finding the net.

According to Natural Stat Trick, Saad’s shots per 60 minutes is up to 7.87 – his highest in five years. His expected goals (0.83) and high-danger chances (3.99) per 60 minutes are also the highest they’ve been in awhile, suggesting he is due for some positive regression. Joining a Golden Knights team that ranks fifth in the NHL in goals could help in that aspect as well.

There’s certainly an argument that joining a contending team could bump up Saad’s level of play – at least to the level he had been consistently performing for several seasons in St. Louis. He has been a perennial 20-goal scorer who is better suited for the bottom-six at this point in his career.

Where might he fit in the Golden Knights’ lineup? Saad plays almost exclusively on the left wing, so he joins Ivan Barbashev, Victor Olofsson, Tanner Pearson and Brett Howden as options for coach Bruce Cassidy on that side.

Perhaps the best attribute Saad brings to Vegas is speed. He’s an excellent skater, and is still quite fast, even at 32. He ranks in the 77th percentile league-wide in speed bursts between 20 and 22 miles per hour, according to the NHL’s player-tracking data. He ranked in the 90th percentile in that metric last season, so he brings some much-needed quickness to a big, strong Vegas lineup that excels in transition.

With William Karlsson and Cole Schwindt both out with injuries — and not expected to return any time soon — Vegas has iced a lineup with two call-ups from the American Hockey League lately. Saad should push one of those players (Raphael Lavoie, Jonas Rondbjerg or Cal Burke) back down to the Henderson Silver Knights, and provide the Golden Knights’ middle-six with a bit more scoring punch. Saad’s most likely landing spot, based on the current lineup, is on the left side of the third line with Nicolas Roy and Keegan Kolesar, but Cassidy could shuffle the lines around with another veteran at his disposal.

Saad also brings plenty of postseason experience, which is something the Golden Knights have always coveted. He has played in 103 playoff games, registering 27 goals and 28 assists. The vast majority of that came with the Blackhawks from 2011-15, but he has also been on playoff runs with the Blue Jackets, Avalanche and Blues. He scored seven goals in 10 playoff games with Colorado in 2020-21, and added two goals in 12 games for St. Louis in 2021-22.

This isn’t a team-altering signing for the Golden Knights, but it’s a solid addition at a reasonable cap hit. Considering Saad willingly gave up $5.4 million for this opportunity, you can bet he’ll be motivated to help Vegas win.