Breaking down the battle between Nick Robertson and Matias Maccelli for a top-six spot next season

The Toronto Maple Leafs wrapped up the final piece of business on their offseason checklist, inking Nick Robertson to a one-year contract worth $1.825M and avoiding arbitration. As usual, the two sides agreed to a number almost exactly in the middle of the asks from each side heading into arbitration.

The only outstanding contracts to solve are depth guys at the AHL level, and their third goalie – we have a good idea now of who will be vying for spots in training camp. Unfortunately for Robertson, it looks like it will be tough once again to earn a regular NHL job.

A logjam of forwards

Robertson only skated in three playoff games last season, and didn’t line up in some of the most important ones the Leafs played. He did set a career high with 69 regular season games played, but as the season got harder, he wasn’t leaned on by the coaching staff.

Forwards battling to make the opening night roster in the top-six:

1. Auston Matthews
2. William Nylander
3. Matthew Knies
4. John Tavares
5. Max Domi
6. Matias Maccelli
7. Bobby McMann
8. Nick Robertson

Forwards battling to make the opening night roster in the bottom-six:

1. Dakota Joshua
2. Nicolas Roy
3. David Kampf
4. Calle Jarnkrok
5. Scott Laughton
6. Steven Lorentz
7. Mike Pezzetta
8. Bo Groulx
9. Travis Boyd
10. Vinni Lettieri

That’s a lot of bodies.

It’s expected that the Leafs will want to ice a grittier bottom-six which could include any of the players listed in that section above – even a guy like Pezzetta who only played 25 games last season could have the inside track to making the roster simply due to his gritty forechecking style of play.

Ideally, you’d want Robertson to line up in the top-six due to his skillset and play style but there is really just one spot up for grabs. Matthews, Nylander, Knies, Tavares, and Maccelli are locks in the top-six in my eyes, so that remaining opening will come down to Robertson, Domi, and McMann, plus anyone else who randomly pops in training camp which happens every year.

Robertson’s most frequent linemates last season

Last season, Robertson’s two most common forward linemates were Domi and McMann. They didn’t do particularly well in ~320 minutes together, coming in just around breakeven in shot attempts at 5v5.

They looked like they could be a nice third line, but it doesn’t look like Craig Berube will want to roll out a smaller skilled third line this season, and will try to create a bigger checking line instead. With the additions of Pezzetta, Joshua, and Roy; plus Laughton, Lorentz, and Kampf returning to the team; the bottom-six is jammed as well.

The battle

To me, the battle seems pretty clear cut. Robertson will need to compete with Maccelli for that final top-six winger role, and it’s going to be a tough one. Comparing their best NHL seasons, Robertson’s last year and Maccelli’s the year before, the players are very comparable.