Breaking down the upcoming Drouin decision

Over the next month the Colorado Avalanche have a lot of decisions to make regarding their upcoming unrestricted free agents. One player in particular might shape the dynamic of the offseason ahead and that’s in the case of left winger Jonathan Drouin.

It was a great signing for the organization, which was at least partially motivated by the friendship and history Drouin holds with superstar Nathan MacKinnon. Though it wasn’t just the reunion between those two former QMJHL teammates that made it a good move, but that Drouin got his game and production back on track in a good fit for him in Colorado. The $825k one-year contract Drouin signed for the 2023-24 season was a total bargain when he provided 19 goals 56 points in 79 games proving that he could, in fact, stay healthy and produce in a better suited environment.

Drouin was certainly due a raise after that performance and he agreed to help out the cap-strapped Avalanche by taking a far smaller offer than he would have on the open market. Another one-year pact was executed but for $2.5M with the expectation that Colorado would offer the multi-year extension as soon as they were able to. But that hasn’t materialized yet.

The 2024-25 season for both Drouin and the Avalanche provided mixed results. The injury bug bit again as he missed the bulk of the first half of the season with a lingering ailment but when he was in the lineup Drouin was still bringing the results with 37 points in 43 games. Coincidentally, that’s the exact same number of games Valeri Nichushkin played for Colorado in this season and he only put up 34 points.

The problem really began in the playoffs when Drouin was separated from MacKinnon and couldn’t find any footing with second line center du jour Brock Nelson in a as the pair had 26.85% of the expected goals share together. Drouin was eventually moved to the third line partly due to ineffectiveness and also captain Gabe Landeskog’s return. What once was a fit in Colorado that helped propel Drouin was now undermining his game as there was no path to success in this set-up. Drouin saw his time on ice drop to a shocking 7:45 in all situations by Game 7. The three points he provided in the early part of the series came on the power play and the team didn’t score one goal at even strength with him on the ice over the entire seven games against Dallas.

This lasting last impression has soured the fanbase on the prospects of Drouin’s return. But an asset and depth challenged organization shouldn’t be so hasty to throw out what was a successful addition for the bulk of two seasons. Now, the upcoming price tag is a valid concern, however. With projections according to CapWages of a five million dollar salary over at least a three year term might be a raise Colorado can’t afford but they also shouldn’t assume a better fit and production rate from whoever they can sign as a replacement at market value.

It would have felt there was still enough common ground and the “don’t mess with happy” sentiment to drive both parties to work out another solution. But what happened in the playoffs can’t be ignored. The fickle nature of Jared Bednar and the Avalanche, which in part drove them to dress 50 different players this season, has led to a lot of players getting quickly replaced and even with Drouin’s track record of improved defensive game and production probably isn’t a recipe for a return.

It’s a tough decision which could go either way but ultimately the direction on Drouin should set the stage for other moves this upcoming offseason.