Brock Nelson's future with Avalanche and evaluating Jared Bednar's season

Do the Avs re-sign Brock Nelson?

We're 12 games into Brock Nelson's Avalanche tenure and while the production is solid for a second-line center, his on-ice play has been uneven. He's turned over the puck more than I would have anticipated, and he's also just not shooting the puck. I expected more than 17 shots in 12 games from someone who's scored over 30 goals in each of the last three seasons.

"I think he's got more yet that he can give us," Jared Bednar said Tuesday. "All of his defensive metrics look really good. ... But I think his growth is going to come on the offensive side of it. I don't think we've seen what he can do on the offensive side of it just yet. We've seen it in flashes."

That tracks. With only seven games left until the playoffs, the Avalanche hope he can find that next level.

As for re-signing him, that's a tougher question to answer. Nelson will turn 34 at the start of next season and reportedly turned down a three-year, $22.5 million extension from the Islanders before he was dealt. Three years isn't a long time in the NHL, but that would be a lot of money to commit to a forward whose production has taken a step back this season. 

What other options will be afforded to the Avalanche, though? Casey Mittelstadt is gone, and they moved their future second-line center in Calum Ritchie to get Nelson. They don't have a ton of assets to make another trade if Nelson walks in free agency. Unless Sam Bennett wants to come to Colorado on a sweetheart deal this summer, they might have to bite the bullet and pay Nelson, assuming he's interested in sticking around. There are rumors he may want to play in his home state of Minnesota, but you hear that any time a Minnesota native is set to hit free agency. It doesn't always work out that way.

Why doesn’t Bednar get mentioned more in Jack Adams chatter?

The Jack Adams award, which is not voted on by writers, usually goes to a coach whose team surpasses all expectations, sometimes in fluky ways. Look at last year's winner in Vancouver's Rick Tocchet. That team wasn't expected to make the playoffs and ended up winning their division. They also benefited from very good luck.

The PDO statistic combines shooting and save percentage. Average PDO is around 1.00. Anything well below usually that number indicates poor luck over the course of a full season, while anything too high means everything went right for that team. A high PDO is typically not repeatable on a year-to-year basis. Vancouver led the NHL in PDO last year at 1.028. This year, they're down at .996 and wouldn't you know it? They're likely not making the playoffs because the roster isn't good enough to get there without some good luck on their side.

If I was a betting man, I'd say Washington's Spencer Carbery will take home the award this season. No one expected the Capitals to win their division, let alone the Eastern Conference. Yet they're likely going to do both. Want to take a guess at who leads the NHL in PDO?

There's a reason why coaches like Bednar and Jon Cooper have never won the Jack Adams. Their teams are expected to be good and when they are, they don't really get the credit they deserve for it. There's something to be said about consistency at this level. Bednar has rolled through almost 50 roster players this season and still has them near the top of the league. Sure, he has some of the best players in the world on his side, but a lot of teams with good players underperform every year. His teams don't. That's the sign of a good coach.

Should I be worried about the current state of the Avs or are (they) just resting?

It's only been two games so I wouldn't be worried about anything. It's not like they were blown out in a 2-1 loss to St. Louis or a 3-2 overtime loss to Calgary. The reality is the team right now isn't playing for much, so it wouldn't surprise me if they're a little up and down over these final seven games.

That doesn't concern me, though. They just went on a crazy run to get to this point, so they have what it takes to win. It's also telling they played two of their worst games in the last week and still were in both of those games against teams fighting for their playoff lives. 

Why the constant line changes on the top two lines?

Might as well experiment now and see what works and what doesn't. I think they know that Martin Necas and Nathan MacKinnon had some pretty good chemistry and want to see if any other combos could work if needed.

Is there anyone on the roster the Avs are currently worried about because of lack of production?

My only real concern is with Martin Necas' lack of production at even strength since the 4 Nations break. He has just four even strength points in his last 18 games. His playoff history in Carolina isn't great and I've noticed more and more teams trying to target him physically. As teams prepare for the playoffs, there's less and less ice on which to maneuver. That seems to have impacted his game a little bit.

He's the one guy that has a lot to prove in the playoffs — for a few reasons. One, he hasn't produced there in the past, and the guy he was traded for (Mikko Rantanen) is one of the best playoff point producers of all-time. Two, if he can score in the playoffs, it will look really good for him when it comes time to negotiate his next contract, which could happen this summer.