Brock Purdy Isn’t a Sure Thing: ‘I Think Paying Him $50-Plus Million Is Very Risky’

The San Francisco 49ers can pay Brock Purdy this offseason. 

They shouldn’t do it. At least not at the amount of money it would currently take to lock him in long term.

Purdy, 25, is one of the league’s better quarterbacks. In 2023, he helped lead the 49ers to Super Bowl LVIII, finishing fourth in MVP voting while throwing for 4,280 yards and 31 touchdowns. In the postseason, he rallied San Francisco from a 24–7 deficit to win the NFC championship game over the Detroit Lions, and left the field leading in overtime against the Kansas City Chiefs two weeks later. 

Still, Purdy isn’t a sure thing. In fact, there are more questions than answers. 

Over the past two weeks, Sports Illustrated surveyed a litany of league sources including an NFC general manager, three high-ranking personnel men, two defensive coordinators and an NFC offensive assistant.

All of them have faced Purdy. All were complimentary, including saying he’s a “quality quarterback.”

Only one said they’d extend him this offseason. 

“I like the guy,” says one longtime defensive coordinator. “Better athlete than you would think. As long as he gets the ball out on time, he’s good. Once it’s not clean, he becomes average.”

Last season, Purdy’s picture wasn’t as clean. The Niners watched as running back Christian McCaffrey; left tackle Trent Williams; receivers Ricky Piersall, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk; and tight end George Kittle all missed time. The result was a major dip in production.

Compared to 2023, Purdy played one fewer game. He threw 11 fewer touchdowns and averaged 1.1 yards per attempt less. He also threw one more interception, while his touchdown percentage went from 7.0% to 4.4%. His completion percentage also dropped by 3.5%. 

“I’d play it out as long as possible without paying him if I was San Francisco, including using tags, etc.,” says one high-ranking NFC personnel man. “I think paying him $50-plus million is very risky.”

“I’d play it out as long as possible without paying him if I was San Francisco, including using tags, etc.”

- One high-ranking NFC personnel man

This season, the Niners will look much different. Whether that’s better or worse remains to be seen. San Francisco struggled to six wins last year amidst a crush of injuries but this offseason lost a slew of contributors including corner Charvarius Ward, safety Talanoa Hufanga, defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, left tackle Jaylon Moore, guard Aaron Banks, linebacker Dre Greenlaw and Samuel, among others. It was a mass exodus for a team that entered the winter as the league’s oldest.

While San Francisco stands to almost certainly be healthier, there’s also an open question as to whether the Niners will be healthy—or talented—enough to make noise. While Williams, Kittle and McCaffrey are returning, they’ll be 37, 31 and 29 years old, respectively, come Week 1. Aiyuk will also be back, but he’s coming off a torn ACL sustained Oct. 20, and his early-season status remains unclear.  

All of this begs the obvious question: What is Purdy without a superteam around him?

“Beyond the five or six [quarterbacks] that don’t need people around them, he’s in that group of guys that do need good players around him but can play at a high level,” says an NFC offensive assistant coach.

That opinion fairly represents where most fell on Purdy when asking around the league about him. He’s a good player, but he doesn’t have the ceiling of a great one. He’s nice to have, but is he worth paying long term? That’s debatable. 

“If they think he’s the guy, they’ve probably got to pay him the $50-plus million,” says one senior personnel executive. “If not, how and who will they get to be a better fit? Maybe they do a bridge like Green Bay did with their guy, but his agents will probably not do that. Tough deal.”