Broncos’ 2026 Comp Picks in Doubt—Latest Analysis Pulls Punch on Earlier Projections

It's been a while since the Denver Broncos have received a compensatory selection in the NFL draft — the picks that are awarded to teams mostly based on qualifying free agents lost to other teams. Remember, though, comp picks can be awarded for a minority individual being hired to be another team's head coach or general manager.

The main reason the Broncos haven't gotten compensatory picks in recent years is that they have been active enough in free agency to the point that they have gained as many compensatory free agents as they've lost.

Going into 2026, though, the Broncos had been projected by Over The Cap's Nick Korte to gain a seventh-round pick for the loss of punter Riley Dixon to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. However, the man who projects comp picks for OTC has reevaluated that based on the number of free agents who signed deals at or near the $3 million mark.

As Korte explained in a recent article at Over The Cap, the $3M mark appears to be the point that puts players on the bubble as to whether or not they will count as CFAs. In most of these cases, whether or not they count is based on the percentage of snaps played on offense or defense (for positions other than punter, kicker, or long-snapper, special teams snaps do not count), or based on incentives earned in a contract.

How does this pertain to the Broncos? Let's examine the CFAs the Broncos have signed who are at or near the $3M mark, and those they lost to other teams who are at the same mark, or near it.

The CFAs the Broncos gained are wide receiver Trent Sherfield and running back J.K. Dobbins. Sherfield was primarily signed to play special teams but might see some snaps on offense because of his blocking ability. Dobbins received the unrestricted free agent tender from the Los Angeles Chargers, meaning he would count toward the CFA formula if he signed with another team after the NFL draft.

The CFAs the Broncos lost were Dixon, running back Javonte Williams, and cornerback Tremon Smith. Williams needs to hit a certain percentage of snaps to qualify, while Smith needs to contribute on more than just special teams. Dixon, though, could still qualify for the CFA formula.

Korte shared the extremes for whether none of the players in the $3M range qualified, or if they all qualified for the formula. In the former case, the Broncos don't receive a comp pick, while in the latter, they would get a seventh-round pick for Smith.

Korte also examined the cases for the maximum and minimum number of picks each team could receive, depending on which players counted. The Broncos could get three seventh-rounders at most, but they could also get no comp picks at all.

The main thing to take from Korte's update is that the Broncos can receive no better than a seventh-round compensatory pick, if they get one at all.

It would be nice for the Broncos to pick up a compensatory pick, but the most important thing to remember is whether the CFAs they signed prove to be worthy contributors, while they are able to withstand the loss of the CFAs who signed elsewhere.

And the Broncos could still gain additional 2026 picks if they trade a player or two. It's possible the Broncos could trade at least one player at a position of strength, as was the case last season when they traded outside linebacker Baron Browning to the Arizona Cardinals.

While it's no guarantee the Broncos will get a comp pick, fans shouldn't get discouraged. What matters is what happens on the field. If the Broncos make the playoffs again and make a deep run, nobody should be sweating about comp picks.