Broncos Will Overshoot 9.5 Wins in 2025, Betting Expert Claims

Ahead of the 2024 season, the oddsmakers set the Denver Broncos' over/under win total at 5.5 wins. Sean Payton laughed at that mark, noting that in all of his years as an NFL head coach, he'd never finished with fewer than seven wins in a season.

The Broncos would go on to essentially double that 5.5 over/under, going 10-7 and making the playoffs for the first time since Super Bowl 50. Earlier this offseason, the oddsmakers once again laid out their over/under projection for the Broncos, setting it at 9.5 wins.

SportsLine's expert handicapper Jimmy Kaylor sees the Broncos going over, if only by a smidge. And if a couple of 'swing' games bounce favorably, he could see Denver push well into double-digit territory.

"The Broncos were one of the biggest surprises in the NFL in 2024. Behind a stout defense and a rookie quarterback (Bo Nix), Denver managed to win 10 games. Sean Payton is one of the most successful head coaches of his generation, and the Broncos made a handful of offseason moves that bolstered their roster even more," Kaylor wrote. "This is a team that should have a top-five defense, and an above-average offense. I currently have the Broncos projected to finish with 10 wins for the second straight season, but they do have a couple of swing games that could push that total even higher."

When it comes to AFC West over/unders, Kaylor set the Kansas City Chiefs at 10.5, the Los Angeles Chargers at 9.5, and the Las Vegas Raiders at 7.5. Kaylor took the over on the Chiefs and the Chargers, while taking the under with the Raiders.

In a division as strong as the AFC West, it's survival of the fittest. That creates an 'Iron Sharpens Iron' effect on a team with the right leadership and mettle.

Last season, Denver's 10-win total was good enough for third place in the division behind the Chiefs at No. 1 and the Chargers at No. 2. With Jim Harbaugh as the new coach in L.A., the Chargers swept the Broncos in 2024. Meanwhile, the Broncos split with the Chiefs, but came within an exceedingly improbable blocked field goal from sweeping them.

The Broncos still have to get off the Harbaugh schneid, but they've proven they can hang with the Chiefs since Payton arrived. What remains to be seen is whether the Broncos can be as consistent outside the division as the Chiefs have been under the Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes banner.

It's a tougher schedule this year, but I envision another double-digit winning season in Denver. Nix's ascent continues apace behind one of the best offensive lines in football, complemented by a defense many around the NFL are projecting to be the unit's best in 2025.

Throw in the offseason additions on both sides of the ball, and the reassuring presence of Payton and his coaching staff, and it's hard to disagree with Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr., who said recently that "the times are changing for us."