John Healy, Clear Sight Analytics’ chief operating officer, was sharing his screen on a Zoom call this week. He opened a leaguewide chart for high-danger expected goals for and against at five-on-five.
But then he came across a problem. Healy’s screen cut off the Boston Bruins’ expected-goals-for rate of 0.85 per 48 minutes of play, which eliminates the average amount of special-teams play per game.
“The Bruins don’t even come into play here,” Healy said. “Let me do a full screen here.”
It is never good to be the No. 32 team in the league.
At full size, the chart shows how terribly the Bruins have struggled to score. To trail the winless San Jose Sharks (1.12 expected goals for per 48) is unhealthy.
But there’s more.
During the call, Healy repeatedly noted the limitations of a seven-game sample size. It could even be that the Bruins are finding their game. They lost to the previously winless Nashville Predators 4-0 on Tuesday. The Bruins led in the expected goals department, 3.10 to 2.42.
But Clear Sight Analytics has tracked multiple data points that reinforce how poorly the 3-3-1 Bruins have started.
Consider the following chart, which Healy likes to use as a starting point when gauging team performance. The Bruins have averaged 16 all-situations expected goals for and 19.89 against. They’ve scored above expectation (20, not including empty-net goals) and saved below expectation.
To the latter point, the Bruins are still finding their way in net. As of Wednesday, when it comes to goals saved above expectation, Jeremy Swayman was No. 22 (minus-0.27) among goalies who have faced at least 74 chances. This tells the story of a goalie who is adjusting to NHL pace after missing all of training camp. Swayman, in all likelihood, will rejoin the league’s elite.
As for Joonas Korpisalo, the ex-Ottawa Senator was No. 59 (minus-2.84). Korpisalo is trying to acclimate to a new system. But he is also coming off a full season of poor performance. Korpisalo, who has a $3 million average annual value following salary retention, is No. 1 on a list no goalie wants to be near.
This is coming, of course, after three seasons of Swayman sharing the net with Linus Ullmark. Last season, the Bruins were expected to allow 235.06 goals. Swayman and Ullmark kept it at 211.
Having two high performers made goaltending the Bruins’ primary position of strength. It is no longer that.
But the primary red flag is the team’s lack of offense. Being ranked worst in show for high-danger expected five-on-five goals for in two categories and No. 28 in a third underlines how non-threatening the Bruins are with the puck.
Then consider the performance of the No. 1 line of Pavel Zacha, Elias Lindholm and David Pastrňák. It’s simply not good enough to be on the ice for three high-danger chances for and eight against.
No wonder, then, coach Jim Montgomery moved Zacha off the line against the Predators and replaced him with Brad Marchand.
Zacha, Lindholm and Pastrňák, however, are not alone with it comes to poor performance at both ends of the ice. Look at the names under water in expected plus-minus on high- and mid-danger chances: Charlie McAvoy, Charlie Coyle, Nikita Zadorov, Hampus Lindholm, Brandon Carlo.
These are highly compensated players who started the season with significant responsibilities. So far, they’ve fallen short.
The question you might ask, then, is why the Bruins are 3-3-1. Part of it is because of their high-danger shooting percentages: No. 3 at five-on-five, best in show in settled offensive-zone situations. These are not sustainable over extended stretches. The fourth line of Johnny Beecher, Mark Kastelic and Cole Koepke, in particular, is due to hit a wall.
The same goes for the shooting percentages of their six opponents (they’ve played the Florida Panthers twice): No. 27 in five-on-five, No. 30 off the rush. More shots will go in.
“Right now, some guys haven’t had any offensive success,” Montgomery told reporters in Nashville on Tuesday. “Usually, you’re trying to be perfect. When you try to be perfect, instead of trusting your instincts, passing tends to go awry.”
The Bruins play the 5-2-0 Dallas Stars on Thursday. The Toronto Maple Leafs, their first-round opponent from last season, come to town on Saturday.
The road to a turnaround will not be easy to travel.
