Most NFL fans are under the belief that the Kansas City Chiefs have dominated the Buffalo Bills in recent years. However, the Bills have held their own, winning 3 of the last 6 meetings between the two teams. As the two teams are set to meet in Week 11 at High Mark Stadium, Bills fans are hoping to see their team gain the advantage in the series. Ahead of the Chiefs-Bills game, we’ll be making our Bills Week 11 predictions.
While the overall series has been close, the Bills have won the regular-season games while the Chiefs have broken the hearts of the Bills and their long-suffering fans by winning the playoff games. While the upcoming game can't help the Bills status in their postseason record against the Chiefs, a home victory would do quite a bit for the team's confidence with the postseason on the horizon.
The Bills are firmly in first place in the AFC East with an 8-2 record. They have all but clinched the division title with seven games to play, as their rest of their division competition is struggling badly. The Miami Dolphins are in second place with an unimpressive 3-6 record.
In addition to their solid record, the Bills have won their last 5 games. Buffalo has had a relatively soft schedule as those wins have come against the Jets, Titans, Seahawk, Dolphins and Colts, so they are stepping up in class as the two-time defending Super Bowl champions visit upstate New York.
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Head coach Sean McDermott will have to see his team come up with its best game of the year if they are going to hand the Chiefs their first loss of the season.
Bills QB Josh Allen will throw for less than 200 yards, but he will have 2 TD passes and won't throw an interception
Josh Allen always gets pumped up to compete against the Chiefs because it gives him an opportunity to face off against Patrick Mahomes.
Allen and Mahomes are quite likely the most physically skilled quarterbacks in the league, although Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert can make a reasonable argument that they belong in the conversation.
However, Allen should not look at this game as a 1-on-1 battle against Mahomes. It's not that Allen can't win a statistical duel and put on a performance loaded with highlight-film type of plays. However, trying to better Mahomes is the wrong mindset for the Buffalo quarterback.
Instead, he should be thinking about keeping turnovers to a minimum and giving his team the best chance to win.
Allen is in his seventh year with the Bills and he is long past the idea that he has to carry the team on his shoulders for 60 minutes every game. It's about letting the defense do its job and from getting an assist from the running game.
Allen seems to have a better idea of that this season than he has had in the past. Allen has completed 190 of 299 passes for 2,281 yards with an impressive 17-4 touchdown to interception ratio. By keeping those turnovers to a minimum, he is giving his chance to string wins together.
Allen is a remarkable athlete and a great runner, and that remains one of his skills. He has rushed for 261 yards and 4 scores to this point, but he must protect himself at this point in the season. He should not take any unnecessary big hits that could send him to the injury list.
James Cook will run for 90-plus yards and score 1 TD
The Bills now understand that the younger brother of Dalvin Cook has established himself as a legitimate No. 1 running back.
The 5-11, 190-pound Cook has plenty of speed and quickness, but his game has grown this year because he has been more assertive when he runs between the tackles. Cook has a team-leading 128 carries for 576 yards and 8 rushing touchdowns.
He has also shown that he can contribute to the passing game. Cook has been targeted 25 times this year and he has 20 receptions for 175 yards with 1 touchdown.
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Backup running back Ray Davis has also been a key contributor for the Bills with his work on the ground. He has 64 carries for 268 yards and 2 TDs, and he can be tough for opponents to find because of his 5-8, 220-pound stature.
Bills defense will hold Mahomes to less than 250 passing yards
The Bills have to come up with one of their best defensive games if they are going to come away with the victory.
That means holding Patrick Mahomes in check throughout the game. While that's a huge order, the key is finding a way to slow down his production when the game is on the line in the fourth quarter.
They will have to pressure the Kansas City quarterback and disguise their pass coverage. Defensive end Greg Rousseau has to be a key factor for the Bills. He leads the team with 5.5 sacks and he has also contributed 12 tackles for loss, 2 forced fumbles, 2 passes batted down and 37 tackles.
Safety Damar Hamlin could also be a key contributor. The remarkable Hamlin has 2 interceptions and 5 passes defensed as well as 61 tackles this season. He appears to have come all the way back from his devastating cardiac arrest in 2023.
If Rousseau and Hamlin lead the way for the Bills defense, that unit could have a solid game against Mahomes and his talented Kansas City offensive teammates.
