Caleb Williams projected to fall short of Bears' elusive passing milestone in 2025

Bears fans may need to wait another year to finally experience a 4,000-yard passer in Chicago. At least, that's the case if ESPN analyst Mike Clay's 2025 season predictions come true.

Clay updated his 2025 projections for all of the Bears' skill players, and while he has Caleb Williams enjoying a very good season, the second-year pro falls short of the elusive 4,000-yard passing mark.

In Clay's latest iteration of those projections, Williams throws for 3,917 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions in what can be viewed as a step forward under coach Ben Johnson and a revamped Bears offense. It would also represent a new single-season Bears passing record.

Williams' rookie season ended with 3,541 passing yards and 20 touchdowns despite playing under the unwatchful eye of a horrendous offensive coaching staff.

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ESPN's Caleb Williams 2025 projections might be too low

While I understand being conservative with Caleb Williams' outlook in 2025, I also think there's almost no way he fails to reach 4,000 passing yards, assuming he stays healthy.

If he does, then he either had a really hard time assimilating to Johnson's offense, or Johnson struggled to maintain the play-calling magic he had with the Detroit Lions. Neither outcome seems likely.

Lions QB Jared Goff threw for 4,629 yards in 2024, and, in 2023, he went for 4,575 yards. Goff was lethal in 2022 as well, throwing for 4,438 yards.

Translation? Johnson's offense puts up big numbers, assuming the QB is capable of executing it.

If Caleb Williams' end-of-year stat line is what Clay projects, then it's fair to assume he didn't execute the offense as well as Goff has over the last three seasons. With the weapons Williams has at his disposal, which include DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, Colston Loveland, and Cole Kmet, throwing for "just" 3,917 yards would mean that something, somewhere, went wrong.

Bears fans have been through hell and back with their quarterback play since... forever. It's why a simple and maybe even silly thing like a 4,000-yard passer would mean so much to this franchise. It would represent the official start of a new era, one that's already overflowing with excitement and anticipation.