Can the Cubs deal for Dylan Cease?

The late-night/early-morning spot for Cubs fans asks if the Cubs could swing a deal for Padres ace Dylan Cease

It’s Wednesday night here at BCB After Dark: the grooviest gathering of night owls, early risers, new parents and Cubs fans abroad. Come settle in with us. We’ve got a few tables still available. Let us know if we can do anything for you. There’s a two-drink minimum, but it’s bring your own beverage.

BCB After Dark is the place for you to talk baseball, music, movies, or anything else you need to get off your chest, as long as it is within the rules of the site. The late-nighters are encouraged to get the party started, but everyone else is invited to join in as you wake up the next morning and into the afternoon.

The Cubs lost to the Royals today 8-4 and I don’t want to talk about it. Other than to say the team needs another starting pitcher.

Last night I asked you what you would do about third base for the Cubs, assuming that they can’t swing a deal for Diamondbacks slugger Eugenio Suárez. The vote wasn’t close with 66 percent of you saying if the Cubs can’t land Suárez, they should just stick with what they’ve got. Another 18 percent of you like Twins’ utility player Willi Castro.

So Buster Olney dropped this bombshell earlier today that has tongues wagging.

For those who can’t see that.

A surprise name has emerged in the starting pitcher market: Dylan Cease, who will be eligible for free agency at year’s end. Perception of other teams is that the Padres are intent on making a push for the playoffs, and would use Cease to help fill other roster needs. Mets, AL East teams, Cubs among teams that have talked about him.

So let’s break this down a little.

Cease, superficially, is having a down year heading into free agency this winter. If we still care about win-loss records, Cease was 3-9 with a 4.64 ERA. That doesn’t seem like the guy who finished fourth in Cy Young Award balloting last season.

But if you look at the underlying numbers, not much has actually changed. Cease’s velocity is actually up a touch this year. His strikeouts are also up a little bit and his walks are down a touch. The biggest difference appears to be that more of the fly balls he’s giving up are going for home runs. That’s generally considered to be luck. Cease’s fly ball rates are pretty much unchanged from last year.

However, Cease’s batting average on balls-in-play is also way up, from .266 last year to .328 this year. That’s either bad luck or bad defense from the Padres. Cease’s career numbers for BABIP is .295, so it seems like he was lucky last year and unlucky this year and his true ability lies somewhere in between.

If you really want to nitpick, Cease is giving up a touch more hard contact (and more soft contact—medium contact is down) and barrels. I’m not sure that’s enough of a trend for it to be anything other than statistical noise, especially since he appears to be missing just as many bats.

So Cease is the type of pitcher the Cubs would love to go into the playoffs with. The fact that he’s a free agent at the end of the season limits how much the Cubs would be willing to give up for him, but they could probably put together a package that they’d be comfortable with.

There are problems with the Padres trading Cease to the Cubs, however. The first is that if the season ended today, the Padres would be the third Wild Card team. San Diego is not looking to sell and prepare for next season. They want players for Cease that they can play now. In particular, they’d like a left fielder, as that position has been a complete whirlpool of suck for the Padres this season. They could also use someone as a designated hitter, particularly from the right side to platoon with Gavin Sheets.

The Cubs don’t have one of those players, at least not one that they’re going to trade to San Diego. The Cubs aren’t trading Seiya Suzuki, Kyle Tucker or Ian Happ. They certainly aren’t trading Pete Crow-Armstrong. So unless the Padres think Owen Caissie is ready to step in and be a productive left fielder right now, the Cubs don’t have anything to offer San Diego. In any case, team president Jed Hoyer has indicated that the Cubs aren’t willing to deal Caissie for just a two-month rental.

What might be possible, however, is for the Cubs to put together a package of minor leaguers that would then allow the Padres the prospect capital they need to acquire an outfielder, such as the Guardians’ Steven Kwan or the Orioles’ Cedric Mullins. There have also been rumors forever about the Red Sox and Padres working out a deal that would send Jarren Duran to San Diego, but the Red Sox are also still trying for a playoff spot and would be unlikely to deal Duran for a rental. Maybe not Owen Caissie high, but certainly two top-ten Cubs prospects would at least be required. The Padres might ask for Jefferson Rojas and Jaxon Wiggins, for example, hoping that that would give them enough minor league talent to spare to bring in an outfielder.

The other problem is that if the Padres do agree to trade Cease, the Cubs won’t be the only team interested. The cost could get very high for a rental.

I’m guessing that most or all of you would like for the Cubs to get Dylan Cease back after the 2017 trade that sent him to the South Side for Jose Quintana. So asking you if you’d agree to a trade for Cease seems silly.

Instead, I’m going to ask you for your thoughts about this rumor. Do you think the Padres are serious about trading Dylan Cease? Do you think the Cubs can put together a package that is acceptable to both teams? Or do you think that a team with a spare major league outfielder (like Boston) would always be able to outbid the Cubs?