There’s an important distinction that must be made, as far as the Montreal Canadiens are concerned. They may owe their recent victory over the Tampa Bay Lightning to Jake Evans, who scored the game-winning goal, in late dramatic fashion. They don’t owe him a new contract.
Now, there’s little disputing Evans has put together a career season up to now. Through 48 games, he has 11 goals and 25 points, when, back in 2021-22, he scored highs of 13 and 29 in 72 games. So, there’s a very good chance he smashes both figures in short order. However, it’s also worth noting he’s scored those 11 goals on 22.4% of his shots, when his career shooting percentage is 10.1%, meaning, he’s likely due to be scoring less and less. And that’s in fact what’s been happening over the last little while.
Evans Simply Not a Scorer
Evans also tallied an assist in the previous game, another impressive come-from-behind victory over the New York Rangers. Those were his first points since Dec. 29, when he last scored, coincidentally also against the Lightning. To his credit, that marked the end of a stretch during which he had scored in five straight games. However, between the Lightning games, a span of 10 goalless contests, Evans took 13 shots.
Taking into account the two he took and the goal he scored on Jan. 21 vs. the Bolts, his S% stood at 29.4%. So, there’s been a course correction of some kind taking place, because, Evans, as impressive as he’s been, simply isn’t the scorer some have built him up to be.
The latest incident took place ahead of the Canadiens’ latest game, a disappointing 4-2 loss to the Detroit Red Wings. That’s neither here nor there, but what was almost just as disappointing was hearing RDS analyst (and ex-NHLer) Denis Gauthier compare Evans to Phillip Danault, who obviously left the Habs to sign with the Los Angeles Kings following their run to the Stanley Cup Final in 2021. Gauthier argued the Habs don’t want a repeat of that mistake and that they should re-sign the former.
Danault had reportedly turned down a six-year, $30 million deal offered by the Canadiens to sign with the Kings for six years and $33 million, a difference of $500,000 per season (from ‘Kings sign Phillip Danault to six-year, US$33-million contract,’ Montreal Gazette, July 28, 2021). The implication is clear, in that, had ex-general manager Marc Bergevin been able to close the relatively small gap, the Habs would have been able to keep Danault, a notorious defensive stalwart, who in past seasons has gone on to take his offense to another level with the Kings.
Evans vs. Danault
Whereas Danault, like Evans, had never scored more than 13 goals before, he notched 27 in his first season with the Kings. So, there are undeniable similarities. However, the differences in circumstances are too significant to ignore. For starters, Danault had been a consistent top-six presence with the Canadiens for seasons. He had centered the team’s top line for a time between Brendan Gallagher and Tomas Tatar, once scoring 53 points. Evans is a bottom-six fixture, who has never so much as hit 30, literally.
What also gets forgotten is how, at the time of negotiations, Danault had been in the midst of a disappointing five-goal, 24-point season (53 games). In Bergevin’s defense, he had to take that into account before committing to him into the long term. With Evans, current-GM Kent Hughes is at risk of paying him for the offense he’s provided this season, as if that’s his default speed, when, in reality, based on how deep the Canadiens are at center, Evans, who will be 29 by next season, will never be relied on to provide offense consistently. He isn’t even now, in the role he plays as the team’s top penalty killer at forward.
The points Evans has put up have really been gravy. The thing is, you don’t typically pay for the gravy. It comes included in the meal. With Evans, who’s obviously a pending unrestricted free agent looking out for his own best interests, someone’s going to be paying him for that offense. It shouldn’t be Hughes or the Habs.
Bergevin’s True Mistake as Canadiens GM
Obviously, in retrospect, Bergevin drawing a line in the stand for all intents and purposes with Danault looks foolish. However, keep in mind, Danault signed with the Kings on July 28, 2021. Jesperi Kotkaniemi signed his infamous offer sheet with the Carolina Hurricanes a month later.
Of course, Bergevin probably could have anticipated an offer sheet, based on then-Hurricanes GM Don Waddell’s insistence that he had tried to trade for Kotkaniemi before going that route (from ‘Carolina GM insists revenge wasn’t part of Jesperi Kotkaniemi deal,’ Montreal Gazette, Sep. 6, 2021)… and the fact Bergevin had signed Canes star Sebastian Aho one a few years earlier. So, definitely bad foresight on his part. Bad general management all around considering he turned around and traded first and second-round picks for Christian Dvorak once the dust had settled, presumably to make up for his miscalculations.
Regardless, in Bergevin’s mind, Danault was likely due to drop down the depth chart. And paying even the $5 million per year Danault reportedly turned down would have been way too much money for a third-line center. If you’re of the belief $5 million would be too much for Evans, you’re probably far from alone. And, to be fair, Gauthier didn’t get into specific figures. So, it’s not like he was emphatically suggesting Hughes should sign Evans to a deal like that. However, the issue is, Evans is on pace for a 43-point season. In 2021, Danault had been on pace for 37 over 82 games. Evans is negotiating with far more leverage. He may not get $5 million, but he definitely is in line to get much more than he would be under normal circumstances, and, as far as his offense is concerned, these aren’t normal circumstances.
Evans Not the Next Danault
Is it possible Evans turns into the next Danault? Of course. Anything is. It’s just more likely that, if the Canadiens were to re-sign Evans to a huge a raise, his offensive totals would drop back down, to levels representative of a forward who plays 15:37 per game and 3:05 on the penalty kill. Not for nothing, Danault played 16:52 per game back in 2020-21. The next season, he got 18:08 per game, including 2:03 on the power play (compared to 0:19 the previous season). So, unless the Habs are envisioning a world in which Evans leapfrogs over half the roster to emerge as a top offensive weapon on this team and stays above a half-dozen quality prospects on the depth chart, any comparison to Danault is inherently flawed.
Few if any people admittedly foresaw Danault scoring 27 goals with the Kings. However, the Canadiens knew he was capable of being a consistent offensive threat to some degree. When he emerged as such, he got ice time commensurate with his capabilities. The same just can’t be said for Evans, who, despite his increased production, remains relegated to a largely defensive role. If the Habs can’t commit to giving Evans more ice time right now over their younger players, with the team in the thick of a playoff race, how can they possibly commit to doing so over the next three, four, five, maybe six years, as the team looks to compete for Stanley Cups, those younger players hit their respective primes and Evans falls out of his?
They simply can’t. And they obviously shouldn’t.
