The Chicago Cubs have long been connected to one of the biggest upcoming free agents, but need to watch how he closes out the year before making plans for a huge contract offer.
Pete Alonso of the New York Mets is a polarizing figure, but is super fun to watch when he's on fire. The problem is that he hasn't been this year, which does not indicate good things for his impending free agency.
Alonso was one of the players highlighted as Thomas Harrigan of MLB came up with a list of players that need to finish strong if they hope to end up with nice contracts when they become free agents.
"Four first basemen in MLB history have signed contracts worth $200 million or more. Will Alonso become the fifth?" asked Harrigan. "At this point, it’s still uncertain. The right-handed slugger has been worth 1.9 WAR (per FanGraphs), which ranks seventh among primary first basemen. Set to turn 30 in December, Alonso can allay some of the concerns about his declining pop with a big finish."
Before this season, the only time that the four-time All-Star hadn't hit at least 37 home runs was the pandemic season. He hit 53 as as rookie and has surpassed 40 twice. Right now, he's only on-pace to hit 34 this year.
Declining power has been a big reason that teams might be hesitant to award him that coveted $200 million contract. Being 30 in the first season of a new contract isn't a death sentence, but coming his weakest season doesn't give a lot of confidence.
The 'weakest' descriptor is meant in the most literal sense. His isolated power number, .225, is much lower than it has ever been before.
He's barreling balls less which has led to the lowest slugging percentage of his career, .470.
Things have been slightly better for him in August, which is a good sign. He's slashed a nice .261/.363/.500 line with six home runs and 15 RBI. That's the most bombs he's hit in a month since April, but still not enough.
Alonso is a net negative in the field and along the basepaths, so his bat carries literally all of his value. Teams like Chicago aren't going to pay him $200 million unless he can turn things around fast.
The Cubs should absolutely pay attention to how the next few weeks of his season go before making any rash decisions on a player like him.
