As the Chicago Cubs settle into life in Japan for their upcoming series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, it provides an opportunity to step back from the chaos of spring training and evaluate the team prior to Opening Day.
In the first installment, the explosion of the offense this spring was discussed. In this second installment, concerns about the starting pitching staff and the lack of depth in viable starters have resurfaced.
This is not a new issue. This was a calculated gamble by Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer not to bring in another established starter to bolster the rotation. The only addition is right-hander Colin Rea, who has seemingly locked down the No. 5 spot in the rotation and is the only Cubs pitcher having a decent spring.
This could be why the Cubs are pursuing veteran starter Lance Lynn. Those talks have reportedly progressed to the point where the two sides are talking about a one-year deal.
Whether a deal happens or not, the heart of this rotation is essentially last year's rotation, meaning if Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele do not perform up to lofty expectations, the rotation could face significant challenges.
Depth is another concern. The Cubs used nine starting pitchers last year, not including "openers," like Luke Little and Nate Pearson. The potential replacements for this year’s rotation remain uncertain for even the most optimistic fans.
Going into the series against the Dodgers, the Cubs’ pitching staff is ranked 20th in MLB Spring Training in batting average against at .264, 19th in ERA at 5.73, 29th in home runs allowed with 36, but is third in strikeouts with 65.
Here’s a breakdown of the six pitchers in the mix for the starting rotation:
Shota Imanaga
Imanaga has appeared in three games, all starts, pitching 11 innings while allowing seven runs, all earned, on nine hits (including three home runs), with two walks and 13 strikeouts. Veteran pitchers like Imanaga are generally less worrisome, but he has not been sharp this spring.
In his last outing against the Cleveland Guardians, his four-seam velocity dropped to 89.7 mph, and his pitch movement decreased. His PitchStuff+ rating was a disappointing 76. Concerns over his four-seam fastball productivity are emerging.
Justin Steele
Steele has also started three games, pitching 8.2 innings and allowing nine runs, all earned, on 14 hits, resulting in an ERA of 9.35. He has not walked any batters while striking out 10. These numbers are quite concerning.
Steele is struggling to miss bats despite his strikeouts. He relies on only two pitches and does not throw in the upper 90s, making his past performance all the more impressive without a viable third pitch. The Cubs need Steele to elevate his game, he and Imanaga must lead the staff.
Matthew Boyd
Boyd, a 34-year-old right-hander, joined the Cubs from the Cleveland Indians after signing a two-year, $29 million contract to become a starter following years in the bullpen.
In spring training, Boyd pitched eight innings, allowing seven runs (all earned) on 10 hits, with five walks and nine strikeouts.
Jameson Taillon
The 33-year-old right-hander is coming off what could be considered the best season of his career. He is dependable on delivering 150-plus innings.
This spring he has pitched six innings, allowing three earned runs on seven hits, with one walk and six strikeouts. Taillon exemplifies what a number four starter should be: solid, but not outstanding.
Colin Rea
Rea is a serviceable No. 5 starter, comparable to Taillon but without the same pedigree. He signed a one-year, $5 million contract with the Cubs after previously pitching for the Milwaukee Brewers. Rea has pitched well this spring, throwing six innings and allowing just one earned run on three hits, with four walks and five strikeouts.
Ben Brown
The 25-year-old right-hander is on the fringes of making the rotation but is likely to start at Triple-A Indianapolis. The good news is that Brown has the potential to grow into a future starter. He appeared in three games, started two, and pitched six innings, allowing six runs (all earned) on six hits, with one walk and nine strikeouts.
Other Names
The top two pitching prospects in the Cubs’ organization, Cade Horton and Jaxon Wiggins, will likely get a look at the upcoming Spring Showcase, where the Cubs will play two games scheduled for March 13 and 15 at 8:05 p.m. ET.
The young pitchers mentioned are not yet ready, and if Imanaga and Steele do not both have good to great seasons, finding reliable innings could become a significant issue. Hoyer has chosen to take this gamble.
