The defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers are over the cap. Is now the time for the Colorado Avalanche to swoop in and snag a key depth forward?
The Colorado Avalanche are in an unfamiliar position. For the first time in years, the team has some cap space and potential flexibility. As the offseason rolls along with both the draft and the initial free agency scramble in the rearview, fans can only wait and speculate about what the club wants to do.
The Avalanche got valuable cap relief when they dealt Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood just prior to the draft. Now that Colorado has some breathing room, they could look to capitalize on a similar situation for Florida.
The Avalanche weren't completely idle in free agency. The team suprised many people, myself included, when they added 40 year old ironman Brent Burns to the blue-line. The move was under the radar to say the least, and as an incentive-heavy deal it doesn't break the bank.
Colorado was rumored to be in pursuit of Nikolai Ehlers. However, they seemingly lost out on the bidding war, and the former Jet ended up landing in Carolina. This is an interesting wrinkle, because after last season's biggest blockbuster deal, the Canes, just like the Avalanche, were looking to replace some Mikko Rantanen production.
Now that the bigger names are off the board, it a may be a waiting game while the front office looks for the right trade offer to materialize.
Why should the Colorado Avalanche pursue Evan Rodrigues?
Financially, it makes near perfect sense for Florida. Currently, they are $2.95 million over the salary cap. Meanwhile, Evan Rodrigues is on the books for a flat $3 million for each of the next two seasons. It would solve their crunch issue immediately.
Florida did very well to retain so much of their championship core. All the same, somebody has to be the odd man out. Why shouldn't the Colorado Avalanche be the beneficiaries of that reality? Avalanche fans know the sting of losing key contributors after the ultimate success. it would be great to be on the other side of that equation.
Surely prying Evan Rodrigues away from the Cats isn't as devastating as the Avalanche seeing Nazem Kadri depart. Still, his impact for the Avalanche would have sneaky good value.
Rodrigues, after all, was good enough in his prior season with Colorado to earn his deal in Florida. In 2022-23, Rodrigues tallied 39 total points with 16 goals and 23 assists in just 69 games for the Avalanche.
In Florida, Rodrigues has produced 39 and 32 point campaigns while possibly answering durability concerns. He played 80 and 82 games in his two years with the Panthers. Those are solid numbers for a depth winger. It might not be the point pace he had in burgundy and blue, but maybe all he needs is a return to the thin air in Denver.
The Avalanche didn't have the space to extend Rodrigues two offseaons ago, but now they do. What's more is that the club has some holes in the forward group. The team is looking to replace the production of Jonathan Drouin, who left for the Islanders. I think Rodrigues would go a long way in doing just that.
It's true that Drouin's first season in Colorado was a bit of lightning in a bottle. Drouin contributed a career-high 56 points in 2023-24. But last year, the winger was hampered by nagging injuries and dipped down to 37 total points.
While the raw numbers even out pretty well, it doesn't account for deployment. Drouin, for instance, was most notable beside his buddy Nathan MacKinnon, and who wouldn't be? Rodrigues is much more of a flex middle-six guy. This means he would more typically float from lines two and three. That differs from Drouin, who more typically drifted between the first and second lines. This was an effort to capitalize on aforementioned chemistry with MacKinnon.
Rodrigues is a versatile two-way forward with more grit than Avs fans might remember. In his past two seasons with the Panthers, Rodrigues hasn't just coasted along and collected back-to-back Cups. He has shown willingness to play heavier. In fact, Rodrigues set career-highs in hits each of the last two years, with 104 and 128 hits recorded respectively.
If you consider that facet, you'll see why adding our old friend again isn't just about replacing what Colorado loses with Drouin moving out. I'm also thinking of the aforementioned Charlie Coyle. Colorado did sacrifice valuable center depth saying goodbye to Coyle, and while Rodrigues isn't about to win you faceoffs, he is an increasingly surly vet.
The Avalanche acquired Coyle at the deadline to get some tough reliability in the third line. Rodrigues can definitely fill some of that void. Also, it's worth noting that both Coyle and Rodrigues were hidden value in shootout situations as well. While that might never be why you sign a guy, it is an added utility that every coach appreciates.
The other selling point for Coyle last season was his playoff chops. Obviously, Rodrigues can now boast of that upside too, after two successful runs in Florida. Rodrigues chipped in by matching 15-point totals in each of Florida's Stanley Cup playoffs. Those aren't just good depth numbers, they are great.
In a more direct comparison of Coyle and Rodrigues, where they each had only one postseason with Colorado on record, Rodrigues clears the hurdle. He tallied five points with one goal and four assists in a single seven-game series against Seattle. Coyle, unfortunately only mustered a single point in the same amount of games against Dallas, where he scored a lone goal.
Is it likely?
It remains to be seen if this is just wishful thinking on my part. I still think Colorado has moves planned that could actually make this more or less likely. With the addition of Burns, it may be even more possible that Colorado moves on from someone like Josh Manson. The backend is getting crowded.
If the club opens up even more cap space than they have now, most would tend to think it comes with some bigger swing, but I actually don't hate the possibility of some medium-risk moves. I would classify a Rodrigues trade along these lines.
The biggest question about this transaction's viability seems to rest with Florida. Star forward Matthew Tkachuk reportedly played through multiple injuries on the way to the win this season. If he has to opt for surgery, the team will recoup money through LTIR and make this trade pitch moot.
I would not spend my time writing this article if I believed the issue was settled. At the very least, if you are Colorado general manager Chris MacFarland, you make the call. Two years ago it was a luxury the club couldn't afford. Now, with two years of controlled certainty, and the cap continuing to rise, it looks like a steal.