The worst-kept secret heading into the 2024 NFL Draft was that the Indianapolis Colts wanted to grab another playmaker for their offense. General manager Chris Ballard desperately tried to do something he's never done before: trade up in the first round to acquire a player with legit superstar potential.
The New York Giants turned down the Colts' offers to move up to number six for Malik Nabers, and multiple teams hung up the phone as Ballard tried to move up for Brock Bowers as well.
Instead of pressing the issue and committing a massive overpay, the Colts adjusted and took the top defensive player on their draft board with the number 15 pick. This selection was perfectly fine for the Colts, but it did little to satiate their desire for another playmaker on offense. The Colts waited patiently for their pick in round two to address this need, and even moved back in the middle of the round when multiple receivers were available at their pick.
They ultimately settled on selecting Texas pass catcher AD Mitchell with the number 52 pick in the draft. Mitchell was one of the youngest players in the draft, and the consensus saw him as a player who could have gone in the first round with his athletic talent. The Colts felt comfortable swinging on his upside in round two, and the young player entered his first season with sky-high expectations.
Mitchell was expected to push veteran Alec Pierce for a starting job out of training camp, but that competition fizzled out when Pierce had the best offseason of his life. Mitchell didn't necessarily struggle out of camp, but Pierce elevated his game to a level that Mitchell couldn't match in his first summer of work. Still, Mitchell did get a chance to shine in the slot for the first two games of the season as Josh Downs was nursing an ankle injury.
For the year, Mitchell saw starter-level snaps in just three outings. He had his fair share of ups and downs on the season, and most Colts fans are mixed on how to feel about the 22-year-old pass catcher heading into his second year of play. So today, let's dive into Mitchell's full body of work in year one and break down whether he has the tools to exceed expectations going into 2025.
Positives
A True Isolation Threat
Mitchell was billed as one of the best athletes and the best separators in the draft. He had his fair share of struggles against zone last season, but he had flashes of excellence when left on an island in man-to-man. His 2.35 yards per route run against man coverage ranked second among the Colts' receiver room, only behind Downs in the slot.
The Colts found that the best way to utilize Mitchell was to align him on the backside of 3x1 formations on an island by himself. This would leave him isolated with that backside cornerback, and the Colts trusted the young receiver to win those matchups more often than not. He had a few drops on these plays, but aside from that, he constantly showcased the ability to win at the line of scrimmage and create separation on a variety of routes.
He had a few quality routes against top corners last year. In the video below, he has wins against Joey Porter Jr., Christian Benford, Tyson Campbell, and L'Jarius Sneed, just to name a few of the opposing players.
An Elite Athlete
On top of being a dangerous separator that can be left in isolation, Mitchell is simply a fantastic athlete. He has the ability to run away from defenders in the open field, and the Colts let him stretch his legs on occasion last season. The team prioritized getting him on the move on mesh and drag routes halfway through the season, and he created a few massive chunk plays as a result.
Mitchell also showed his athletic talent in a big way against the Minnesota Vikings last season. He made a dazzling catch along the sidelines for a 22 yard gain in the second quarter, dragging his feet just barely in bounds on the boundary throw. Plays like these just display the level of athlete that the Colts are working with. He has the foot speed and the skill to be a top tier receiver in this league.
Nuanced Route Running
Mitchell is a raw player, being that he is still only 22, but he displayed a good amount of route-running prowess in season one. His ability to throttle down and separate on comebacks and curls was one of his strengths last season, as he leaned into his ability to sell a vertical route in order to create an underneath window.
This may come off as sacrilege, but the way he runs these routes is eerily similar to how T.Y. Hilton would back in the day. The easy acceleration, the constant stemming in his steps, and then the ability to quickly throttle down and come back to the ball all remind me of The Ghost back in his illustrious career. If Mitchell can just learn to attack the ball more consistently, like he does in the Bills clip below, he can be a deadly weapon in this area of his game.
Negatives
Drops
By far the biggest concern from Mitchell's rookie season was his drop rate. He finished the season tied for the team lead in drops despite seeing the fourth-most targets in the receiver room. His 14.8% drop rate was the fourth worst among receivers in the NFL, and his -14.0% catch rate over expected was the second worst among all receivers with at least 40 targets last season, according to Next Gen Stats.
On top of his issues hauling in the easy receptions, he also struggled in contested catch situations. He finished the season with zero contested catches in five opportunities. He had issues with the physicality of playing the position and didn't finish the opportunities given to him in the passing game.
The Colts' quarterback play was far from optimal last season, but he was the only receiver in the room with a catch rate under 50%. Even Pierce, a player with an average depth of target at 21.5 yards down the field, had a much higher catch rate than Mitchell last season.
Passive in Contested Situations
Going back to his struggles in contested situations, Mitchell couldn't get the job done last season when a defender was in his vicinity. He would get outmuscled in his routes and lacked that true "my ball" mentality when a defender was near him. He pulled away from contact multiple times last year, with the most egregious examples coming in the fourth quarter against the New England Patriots and on a short throw over the middle against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
He simply didn't look ready for the physicality and the speed of the NFL game. He looked shellshocked in a lot of moments, and this led to his numbers plummeting even more in an offense that already struggled to complete passes and move the ball downfield.
Pacing and Timing Issues
The final factor in why Mitchell's receiving numbers plummeted much worse than others on the roster is his issues with pacing and timing in his routes. There were far too many occasions last season where he didn't get his head around on a play or didn't fully complete his route, leading to balls being thrown even more off-target. Factor that in with a few slips and falls, and quarterbacks just couldn't get on the same page with the young receiver.
This is probably the easiest issue to correct going forward, as Mitchell just needs more time in the offense (and maybe new cleats) and he should be fine. It may seem like a nitpick, but it does add even more context to his concerning numbers in year one.
The Bottom Line
Mitchell is a receiver who oozes talent, and Colts fans would be foolish to completely give up on a 22-year-old receiver coming off one bad season in the NFL. Pierce was once nearly run out of town for his drops in his rookie season, but he turned it around to become a top-tier deep threat by his third year in the league. Sometimes, these things take time, and Mitchell has the ability to be an impactful NFL player.
That being said, there is reason to worry with Mitchell's game. Like Pierce, there is concern that Mitchell may be a one-trick pony in the NFL. Pierce's one trick is obviously his ability to win vertical and make contested catches, while Mitchell's may be his ability to win on an island against man-to-man coverage. Aside from that one (albeit awesome) ability, he struggled to show promise in other areas in year one.
Just looking at Next Gen Stats tells part of the story with Mitchell's game. The site had him as the team's second-worst separator in the receiver room, the worst after the catch by a good margin (-7 yards after catch over expected), and the worst in catch rate and in catch rate over expected. While the separation metric is likely being pulled down by his struggles to find space against zone coverage, the other two metrics are pretty concerning.
Even going back to his college days, Mitchell was never a player known to create after the catch. It's hard to project that to improve in the NFL. As for the catch rate, at least he never struggled with drops in college. There is some concern that his struggles with the physicality in the NFL may linger, but again, he is a young player adjusting to a new league. Progress isn't always linear, and some players take more time than others to get to where they need to be.
Overall, the best comparison I can come up with for Mitchell is how a talented freshman football player looks arriving for high school ball in his first summer. He's all excited to take his game to the next level in a tougher league, but then a massive hit from an 18-year-old senior on varsity knocks some fear into the kid. The kid simply needs to adjust to the new level of physicality and violence at the higher level of play.
To pull the analogy back to Mitchell, he just needs to find a way to be comfortable with the speed and the physicality of the NFL. As long as he can make a few contested catches next season and haul in the easy passes, he should be a positive impact player. If he can take even another step and add some YAC ability and some physicality to his game, he can become a legitimate star in the league.
Mitchell has all the talent in the world to be a fantastic NFL player, it's just up to him to properly develop into the player that he can be. He needs to take major strides this offseason, but I have faith in the young player. The flashes were great and there is a great player somewhere deep inside of him, he just needs to bring it out going forward.
