INDIANAPOLIS — The Colts cannot get any finality this weekend.
A win in Denver will not guarantee Indianapolis lands a playoff spot, and a loss cannot mathematically eliminate the Colts before they get on their flight home, no matter what else happens in the NFL this week.
But the numbers only matter so much, and the reality is that Indianapolis emerges from its bye week facing down a game of monumental implications.
Beat the Broncos, and the playoff berth that has often seemed out of the Colts’ reach suddenly becomes achievable. Drop this game in Denver, and Indianapolis might need a miracle.
“Every game is an important game,” Colts cornerback Jaylon Jones said. “But we do know what’s at stake.”
The playoffs have been the goal since the ball bounced off Tyler Goodson’s hands at the end of the season finale last year. Colts general manager Chris Ballard set the playoffs as the benchmark days after that loss, head coach Shane Steichen briefly redirected attention to the postseason when he benched Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco, then reminded everyone that winning remained the goal after Indianapolis returned its young quarterback to the No. 1 role.
The pressure is there.
The Colts have not been in the playoffs since Philip Rivers took them there in 2020; the three seasons since have been defined by collapse (2021), outright disaster (2022) and a missed Gardner Minshew throw leaving Indianapolis just short of a surprising playoff appearance (2023). An Indianapolis fan base that grew up on a steady diet of playoff games is getting hungry for success, and it’s hard to imagine that the Colts themselves don’t feel it.
“We all know,” Steichen said. “We’re not going to be oblivious to how big this game is, but we know that we’ve got to handle our business, and we’ve got to prepare the right way and go play a football game. That’s going to be the main message.”
The motivation should be there.
But there is the real possibility that the Colts might take things too far if they focus all their attention on the implications. A team too aware of the weight on its shoulders sometimes plays tight, plays on tilt, makes mistakes of desperation in moments that do not call for blind aggression.
Indianapolis has won two of its last three since Richardson’s return, squeaking by the Jets and the Patriots behind the unflappability of its young quarterback, who believes he’s been able to bring the Colts back because he hasn’t let the magnitude of the moment overwhelm.
A loss to either New York or New England would have put the Colts’ playoff hopes on life support.
Richardson brushed aside a question about the near-miss nature of those wins after the last-second win in Foxborough, Mass.
“We’re not even thinking about the long run, honestly,” Richardson said after bringing Indianapolis back to beat New England in Gillette Stadium for the first time since 2006. “We’re just trying to take it one game at a time, because earlier in the season, that was our thought process: Win. Win every game.”
The Colts may not need to win every game to make the playoffs.
But they almost certainly need to win this one. According to the New York Times’ playoff simulator, Indianapolis has a 65% chance of making the playoffs if the Colts beat Denver; the chances drop to just 9% if they lose.
The reason is simple.
Denver currently sits in the AFC’s seventh and final playoff spot at 8-5, two games ahead of the Colts. If Indianapolis loses in Denver, the Colts will not be able to catch the Broncos in a head-to-head tiebreaker, even if the Colts won their final three games and Denver dropped every one of its games. In that scenario, Indianapolis would need a Houston collapse or some kind of three-way tie to get into the playoffs.
Beat the Broncos, and even though the Colts would still sit a game behind Denver, the road to the finish is much easier for Indianapolis than it is for Denver. Indianapolis faces three teams likely to be picking in the top 10 — the Titans, Giants and Jaguars — while the Broncos have to play the Chargers, Bengals and Chiefs.
Los Angeles also sits at 8-5, but the Chargers finish the season with games against the Patriots and Raiders, making Denver the more inviting target.
The Broncos offer an opportunity to take matters into the Colts’ own hands.
“When you’re playing meaningful football in December, I think it’s big,” Steichen said. “I think it’s real big, to have an opportunity to go on the road in an environment that I’m sure will be electric on Sunday. They’ve got a lot to play for. We’ve got a lot to play for.”
As much as almost any game in the NFL with four weeks still left to play.
