The Toronto Maple Leafs may have found a hidden gem in winger Nikita Grebenkin.
He’s skilled. He’s not afraid to get feisty. And right now, currently in his first season in North America, Grebenkin is turning heads in a big way on a competitive Toronto Marlies team.
The Russian-born winger has six points in his first eight games with the Marlies, playing a prominent top-six role out of the gate. His transition to North America has been quite seamless, starting off hot with a fight during his first NHL preseason game.
His offensive results shouldn’t be too surprising. Grebenkin played a prominent role with KHL Magnitogorsk as a 21-year-old last year, tallying 19 goals and 41 points on a low-scoring team. It was good for second in team scoring, and he was third among all U-21 players while playing the third most games of anyone that age.
Being a high-scoring player in the KHL doesn’t mean it’ll transfer over, but Grebenkin has wasted no time learning how to cause damage on the smaller ice in Canada.
Grebenkin loves having the puck on his stick. He can be creative in 1-on-1 situations, doing his best to deke guys out and create a chance. He’s better as a setup guy, especially when paired with a speedy, skilled shooter. Grebenkin does an excellent job of cycling the puck. He’s able to shrug off shoves from bigger players, keep the play alive and then generate a scoring chance.
There’s room to grow for him as a player. His skating is still a bit awkward at times, but working with the Leafs development staff will help curb that. There has been legitimate improvement since he was originally drafted, too – including in the AHL, where he’s often attacking a lot more with pace than we saw even during training camp.
That being said – it’ll be interesting to see what the Leafs decide to do with him. He isn’t your typical 21-year-old prospect – he’s in his fourth season of professional hockey. And with how far he has come since getting selected in the fifth round in 2022, Grebenkin has proven already he can play above expectations.
Toronto has no shortage of bottom-six options to choose from. Steven Lorentz has looked solid, Bobby McMann has continued to find ways to remain relevant over the past year and Ryan Reaves is there to serve a purpose. Connor Dewar is expected to come back soon, too, which will complicate things there.
The Marlies also have a few others with NHL potential – namely Roni Hirvonen, Alex Steeves and Jacob Quillan. Alex Nylander has been one of the Marlies’ top players, but he’s on an AHL-only deal. You have to think the Leafs are keeping a close eye on him to see whether he’s a real option to join the big club at some point.
So there isn’t an immediate path up for Grebenkin – unless, maybe, the team moves on from Nicholas Robertson. They’ve been hesitant to do that so far, but after a great preseason, Robertson has been dead quiet on the scoresheet. At this point, it’s probably best for both sides to move on after the worst start of the winger’s young career.
Robertson is a goal-scorer – and when he isn’t scoring, he’s not doing a whole lot. With Grebenkin, you can make him into more of an energy forward who can still put up around 30 points a year. He’s just a more versatile player, and he’s stronger too. In 1-on-1 situations, Robertson would be the much better fit, but it’s definitely better to let him go free and let someone else fill a bottom-six role in a way that Robertson simply can’t.
Even if the Leafs move on from Robertson, Grebenkin’s entry into the lineup will be challenging. This team is in win-now mode, making it difficult for younger players to snag opportunities. There are plenty of other players in his position looking for their big break.
Grebenkin is one of the few prospects in Toronto’s system that isn’t afraid to mix offensive flair with physicality. And while the latter still isn’t a major part of his game yet, scouts have noticed that he’s a lot more aggressive now than he was even a year ago in the KHL.
Undoubtedly, Grebenkin needs to spend at least most of the campaign in the AHL. Toronto isn’t an easy market to play in, and he needs to adapt to his new surroundings. But he’s producing, and he’s playing an overall impressive game. At some point, you have to wonder if Toronto will reward him for it.
Overall, scouts like him. He’s still a little raw but he has the makings of a solid bottom-six scoring threat. And with the right development, patience and opportunities, Grebenkin could be a long-term option for the Leafs in a big way.
