The New York Islanders’ 2024 offseason has been underway for more than a month and the team has already been active. They have signed top Russian free agent Maxim Tsyplakov and made a significant draft trade. The Pittsburgh Penguins have been less noisy, remaining awfully quiet as their even-longer offseason has progressed. However, with both teams in need of a roster shakeup, could they swap some of their core players?
Pageau for Rakell Swap Could Make Sense
Rickard Rakell was traded to the Penguins at the 2022 Trade Deadline for a second-round pick, goaltending prospect Calle Clang, and two roster players. He impressed down the stretch thaht season in Pittsburgh, scoring four goals and 13 points in 19 games. From there, the Penguins extended him to a six-season contract with a $5 million annual average (AAV) that contains an eight-team no-trade list. After scoring 28 goals and 60 points in his first season of the contract, he scored just 15 goals and 37 points this past season.
If the Penguins were to move on from Rakell, they would be selling him at his lowest price. Unfortunately, due to the increasing pressure from the fanbase for the team to compete in Sidney Crosby’s final prime seasons, the team may decide to trade Rakell for pennies on the dollar. This is where the Islanders can swoop in.
Islanders’ center Jean-Gabriel Pageau was acquired at the 2020 Trade Deadline after scoring 24 goals in 60 games for the Ottawa Senators. In his time with the Islanders, he has failed to hit the 20-goal mark. While he has been the team’s best defensive forward since his acquisition, it may be time for the two sides to split.
A Rakell for Pageau swap makes sense for both sides. Both Pageau and Rakell are making $5 million, but Rakell has four seasons remaining on his contract while Pageau has just two. If Pageau were to struggle in Pittsburgh, he would be an easy contract to get rid of with just one season left. While the same could not be said for Rakell, his offensive upside is worth the gamble.
The Penguins are also in need of a third-line center, and Pageau would fit the criteria perfectly. The team is getting enough offense from their top two centers in Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, so adding an elite defensive center in Pageau would be a great fit. As well, Pageau was not an offensive liability last season, scoring 1.518 points per 60 minutes. In an elevated role with consistent linemates and power play time, Pageau could reach the 20-goal mark with ease in Pittsburgh.
The gamble for the Islanders makes sense. The team lacks the assets required to bring in other top forwards, so bringing in Rakell for such a low price may be the only way to add a forward with his upside. As well, he is fast and has a good shot, so the fit on the Islanders’ top line alongside Mat Barzal and Bo Horvat makes sense. While Pageau and Rakell may not have equal value, a trade consisting of the two forwards would not require much more than a few late draft picks to make both sides happy.
O’Connor Is an Ideal Fit for Islanders
If you have never heard of the Penguins’ Drew O’Connor, there is likely a reason why. The soon-to-be 26-year-old did not break through to the NHL in a full-time capacity until this past season. Yet, in his first true NHL opportunity, he took the most of it, scoring 16 goals and 33 points. He had 23.4 expected goals, according to MoneyPuck, all while playing just 12 minutes all season on the power play.
The 6-foot-3, left-handed winger is a prime trade candidate for the Islanders. He will not be the guy who lifts the team to Stanley Cup contention, but he is a cheap candidate to fill in on an underwhelming forward core. Making just $925,000 next season, he would seamlessly fill in on the Islanders’ second line alongside Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri. However, for the same reasons the Islanders would have interest, the Penguins would want to retain him. So, the Islanders would need to prepare an offer the Penguins could not refuse.
Trading for O’Connor and Rakell
Given none of the forwards mentioned have been in any concrete trade rumors recently, it is hard to gauge each of their trade values. The framework would be Rakell and O’Connor going to the Islanders for Pageau and another asset. Depending on what the Penguins want, this asset could be a draft pick, — such as a second, third, or fourth-rounder — o a prospect such as William Dufour, Ruslan Iskhakov, or Cameron Berg. There is no way of predicting exactly whaat a trade could look like, but there is a path to making both teams happy through a trade. If O’Connor is not available, a Rakell for Pageau swap could still be in the cards.
As the offseason continues, at least one of Pageau, Rakell, or O’Connor will likely get mentioned in trade talks. While there is no guarantee any of the three get moved, it is hard to imagine the Islanders and Penguins do not make significant changes to their rosters after their 2023-24 campaigns ended in disappointing fashion.
