The Red Sox flirted with playoff contention at times in 2024 but ultimately fell short, finishing five games back of a Wild Card spot at 81-81. That puts their focus on the offseason and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe published a column today, trying to read the tea leaves on some recent comments from chief baseball officer Craig Breslow as well as president and CEO Sam Kennedy.
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Notably, the comments suggest the club plans to enter the winter with more of a win-now mentality. “It’s time to take that next step. It really is time,” said Kennedy. “You really need to build a roster and have a team that is built to win that division. That’s where we want to get to. We just have to go and do the right things that put us in that position to push towards 90-95 wins.” Kennedy has also stated that the club feels they have “building blocks” in place that they can construct a club around.
Of course, many fans will be quick to point to chairman Tom Werner’s “full throttle” comments from a year ago as a reason to be skeptical, since the club didn’t really follow through on that promise. Generally speaking, the Sox had a relatively future-focused offseason going into 2024, with the most notable move being the trade that sent Chris Sale to Atlanta for infielder Vaughn Grissom. That deal has gone very poorly so far for the Sox, as Sale went on to have an excellent season for his new club while Grissom struggled immensely after that deal.
But as Speier points out, most of the comments made by the Boston brass around this time a year ago were far more measured, with the “full throttle” quote being the exception that received the most attention. Breslow has recently suggested that a deal like the Sale-Grissom swap will get less consideration this offseason.
“That was a decision that was made with a longer-term focus in mind as much as 2024,” said Breslow on NESN’s 310 to Left podcast, as relayed by Speier. “Exclusively looking at the future is not something that we should be prepared to do as we embark on this offseason heading into 2025. Otherwise, fans would be rightfully frustrated with this continued push-off into the future of the window of contention. We can no longer ask our fans to look to the future, to think about a Red Sox team that’s capable of winning the division and capable of making a deep postseason run. We have to talk to decisive actions that we’re taking right now to put a better team on the field in 2025.”
Breslow echoed Kennedy’s comments that the club is setting a high target for next year. “It’s time to deliver the team that’s capable of winning the AL East and making a deep playoff run,” said Breslow. “If that means that guys who haven’t yet made their big-league debut need to be on the team to help us do that, then we have to be prepared for that. And if it means we have to be aggressive in bringing players in who aren’t currently in the organization to complement those who are, we have to be open to doing that as well.”
If the Red Sox are planning to be more aggressive, that could come in many forms. One of them would be financially, as the club could decide to return to being a top spender. Per the calculations of Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Sox had one of the top five payrolls in the league from 2004 to 2020, including being first overall a few times, but they have dipped since. They were eighth in 2021, sixth the year after that and then 12th in the two most recent seasons.
Per RosterResource, the Sox have about $105MM committed to the 2025 roster, well shy of this year’s $183MM. That doesn’t include the club’s arbitration-eligible players, but they have a fairly modest class this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects salaries just under $5MM for Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Jarren Duran, the entirety of the club’s arb group. Even if Boston were only to carry the same payroll forward from 2024 to 2025, they would have a lot of powder dry, while they would naturally have even more to work with if they decide to push payroll up.
Another possibility would be to be active on the trade front, with Breslow acknowledging that they might have to make some tough decisions about which players stay and which ones go. “There are going to be a lot of really good major league players who aren’t going to realize their value in Red Sox uniforms because only one guy can do that at a time at second base or shortstop or center field,” said Breslow.
The Sox have promoted a number of young prospects to the big leagues in recent years, with those players having varying degrees of major league success. Duran had a huge step forward defensively this year, which made him a hugely valuable piece when combined with his offense and baserunning. He’s only just reaching arbitration for the first time as a Super Two player and can be retained for four more seasons. Triston Casas has a great combination of power and on-base ability, with four years of club control beyond this one. Connor Wong and Wilyer Abreu also had some encouraging results in 2024 and will still be pre-arb in 2025.
On top of those players, the Sox also have long-term deals for Rafael Devers, Trevor Story, Ceddanne Rafaela and Masataka Yoshida. They could pick up a cheap 2025 option on Rob Refsnyder for $2.1MM. There’s also the club’s emerging group of position player prospects. Catcher Kyle Teel, infielder/outfielder Kristian Campbell, shortstop Marcelo Mayer and outfielder Roman Anthony are all considered top 100 guys and each has now reached the Triple-A level, so they will be pushing for major league jobs next year. (Mayer technically hasn’t played in a Triple-A game yet as he landed on the injured list shortly after being promoted to that level.)
With Danny Jansen heading to free agency, there could be an easy path for Teel to eventually share time behind the plate with Wong. If Mayer eventually takes over the club’s shortstop job, Story could perhaps move to second, squeezing out other guys on the roster. Rafaela has played both the middle infield and the outfield, but Boston’s options on the grass already include Duran, Abreu and Refsnyder with Anthony on the way. Campbell, like Rafaela, can play both the middle infield and the outfield and will be a factor somewhere at some point.
As Breslow suggested, the club likely can’t find jobs for everyone here, which will naturally lead to some interesting trade discussions this winter. With all these players and only so many spots, perhaps Breslow could acquire some pitching from another club. Boston had a collective 4.05 earned run average in 2024, 16th among the 30 major league clubs. They are now slated to lose Nick Pivetta, Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin to free agency.
Between the trade market and the club’s financial situation, Breslow should have all kinds of options to consider this winter as he tries to push the Sox forward in a crowded American League East for 2025. The Yankees and Orioles just wrapped up strong seasons. The Rays and Blue Jays disappointed in 2024 but have been in good form in prior years and will be looking to bounce back in 2025.
