Let’s start this series with a top Japanese pitcher.
The Cubs have, in recent years, taken some deep dives into the Japanese player market by signing Seiya Suzuki and Shōta Imanaga.
These signings have, for the most part, been quite successful. Suzuki, despite not being as good a defender as he was in NPB, has produced 8.2 bWAR in three years as a Cub, and that might have been more if not for injuries in each of those seasons.
Imanaga was a revelation, pitching well all season and becoming a popular fan favorite, and he’s likely to get some downballot Rookie of the Year and Cy Young votes.
Personally, I believe this makes the Cubs a player in the Japanese market. These two signings, in particular, have to be the reason the Cubs were chosen to face the Dodgers in next March’s Tokyo Series, thus putting four top Japanese players on display in their home country, along with Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
And now we come to Roki Sasaki, who just turned 23 and has been among the top NPB pitchers the last few seasons. In 64 total games in NPB, he has a 2.10 ERA and 0.895 WHIP. He strikes out a lot of guys (524 in 414x innings) and, like Imanaga, doesn’t walk many. He’s said to throw near 100 miles per hour, unusual for many Japanese pitchers.
There’s been some question about whether Sasaki will be posted this offseason by his NPB team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, but Kiley McDaniel recently wrote at ESPN.com that he thinks Sasaki will be posted:
With indications pointing to Sasaki joining this year’s class, we’ll include him here as he immediately would be among the most sought-after players available. Given the rules in place for players coming over from Japan before they turn 25 years old, it doesn’t make any financial sense for him to get his club to post him this year because, like Shohei Ohtani, he would be limited to the international bonus pools that are all under $8 million; if he comes after Dec. 15, the pools reset and he could get as much as $7 million or so, but if he comes before he’ll be limited to roughly $2.5 million at most.
Coincidentally, the team with that roughly $2.5 million remaining in its pool, the most in baseball, is the Dodgers: They are heavily favored to land Sasaki just as they landed Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto last offseason. There are some complicating factors for the Dodgers this time, though: Some scouts think Sasaki would prefer a smaller market, and his velocity was down this year, leading some to believe he’s nursing an injury.
There’s quite a bit to unpack there. Sure, there’s an obvious “Japanese player to the Dodgers” thing here, but... why not the Cubs, who also have two Japanese stars who could perhaps convince Sasaki to sign with the North Siders? As noted by McDaniel, since Sasaki is under 25 he’d fall under the international amateur rules and no team would have to pay him much. Ohtani came to MLB with the same restriction, but obviously has turned his talent into many millions. Sasaki, if he’s as advertised, could do the same — and it wouldn’t cost the Cubs much upfront. (They would have to pay a posting fee to the Marines, but such fees don’t count against a team’s luxury tax.)
The Cubs did scout Sasaki this past summer in Japan, and I find the note about Sasaki preferring a “smaller market” interesting. Chicago isn’t that much “smaller” a market than Los Angeles, but as you all know, there’s a different vibe to Chicago than L.A., and I’m sure Suzuki and Imanaga could fill Sasaki on on that. Imanaga, in particular, embraced the city, its culture and team culture and likely could help Sasaki fit in.
Would the lure of the defending World Series champion Dodgers be too much for the Cubs to overcome? Maybe, but I think they ought to do whatever it takes to sign Sasaki. For the first few years, at least, they’d be getting a top starting pitcher without having to spend a fortune. Then they’d have payroll space to use on other players.
About that “leading some to believe he’s nursing an injury”: Sasaki’s K rate was down and his walk rate up in 2024, but both were still well above average and he allowed just two home runs in 111 innings. Unless there’s some sort of serious injury — and I assume the Cubs would do their due diligence to find out — I’d like to see the Cubs add Sasaki to their rotation, presuming he is in fact posted.
