Cubs Predicted to Lose New Outfield Star in $500 Million 2026 Free Agent Deal

In one of the most stunning blockbuster trades of this offseason, the Chicago Cubs acquired three-time All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker from the Houston Astros in a trade that sent highly ranked third base prospect Cam Smith to Houston along with 2024 All-Star infielder Isaac Paredes and Hayden Wesneski, a promising righty pitcher who had put up a solid 3.93 ERA in 190 innings over three seasons for the Cubs.

The Cubs gave up a substantial haul to get Tucker, so most baseball observers expected Chicago would quickly try to work out a contract extension with the 27-year-old Tucker, the Astros first-round draft pick (fifth overall) in 2015 out of H.B. Plant High School in Tampa, Florida. Otherwise the package of young players - highlighted by Smith, who immediately became the Astros No. 1 prospect (as ranked by MLB.com) - would be a steep price to pay for a single season of Tucker.

Last week, however, the possibility of striking a long-term deal with Tucker suddenly appeared in serious jeopardy when the Cubs and the player deadlocked over $2.5 million in salary, failing to reach an agreement on a one-year deal that would avert a potentially painful arbitration hearing.

Tucker, who avoided arbitration with the Astros last year when the two sides settled on a $12 million salary, requested a raise to $17.5 million from the Cubs in 2025. The team was willing to go no higher than $15 million. Cubs Fansided columnist Zachary Rotman laid the blame for the dangerous impasse at the door of Chicago president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer.

"The Chicago Cubs made up for their lack of interest in high-end free agents by trading for the best player on the trade market, Kyle Tucker," Rotman wrote last week. "Unfortunately for Cubs fans excited about this acquisition, Jed Hoyer gave the entire fan base a reason to be concerned about his future with the team before he even suited up for a game."

Then another Fansided writer, Robert Murray of the "Baseball Insiders" podcast, gave Cubs fans even more reason to worry, predicting Tucker would be in line for a massive free agent contract after the 2025 season.

"This could have long-term ramifications for Tucker and the Cubs," Murray said on the podcast. "He saw what Juan Soto got in free agency, $765 million. He's not going to get Juan Soto money by any means, but if he has a good year, a great year like he typically does, if he stays healthy I don't think $500 million's out of the question for Tucker. He's one of the most underappreciated players in baseball. He's he's going to cash in."

Would the Cubs be players in a $500 million free agent chase? The prospect seems unlikely given that the largest free agent contract they have ever handed out was an eight-year, $184 million deal to outfielder Jason Heyward. That was in 2015.

Heyward played a key role in the Cubs' World Series championship season of 2016, their first since 1908. But on the whole the Hayward signing was considered a bust and the Cubs released him with a full year to go on his contract.