Given Kliff Kingbury's reputation coming into last season as the offensive coordinator of the Washington Commanders, you might think the team was one of the most aggressive passing units in the NFL in 2024.
According to Sports Info Solutions, however, Kingsbury's Commanders offense only attempted 52 passes that traveled 20 or more yards through the air. That number ranked the unit 22nd in deep ball passing effort, while the Indianapolis Colts led the league with 86 such attempts.
Where Kingsbury and quarterback Jayden Daniels did excel was in having those deep attempts at least have the potential to produce yards. With 52 percent of deep passes being on-target, the Washington quarterback room finished 10th while the Cincinnati Bengals, led by Joe Burrow, finished first at 63.8 percent.
From a quality, not quantity, standpoint, Daniels did very well for himself as a rookie. Recently, Pro Football Focus did a deep, pun not intended, dive on those types of throws across the league, and while Daniels didn't crack the top five of the lists, he is very close to being among the best at airing it out in the NFL.
DEEP PASSING EPA
According to PFF's measurements the Philadelphia Eagles had the highest Expected Points Added (EPA) per play when throwing the ball deep. With receivers like A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith along with a running game led by running back Saquon Barkley and arguably the best offensive line in football, it isn't hard to imagine the Eagles having success luring defenses close and then throwing over the top of them.
For the Commanders, adding receiver Deebo Samuel is expected to improve the team's quick and screen passing games, but as head coach Dan Quinn mentioned at the end of mandatory minicamp, the veteran's speed shouldn't be discounted either. In fact, we've seen several attempts to connect with Samuel on deep routes through the offseason program alone.
Any attention Samuel, the short passing game, and a hopefully improved rushing attack led by running back Brian Robinson Jr. can pull from star receiver Terry McLaurin, the more opportunities Daniels will have to find his favorite receiver on his favorite type of throw.
WHO IS DANIELS CHASING?
Since Washington didn't finish in the top five in deep passing it is to be expected that neither did Daniels.
Finishing in that grouping in 2024 were Russell Wilson, then with the Pittsburgh Steelers and now with the New York Giants, Derek Carr who has since retired, 2024's NFL MVP Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills), new Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Geno Smith, then with the Seattle Seahawks, and Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young.
With Carr out of the picture there will be at least one opening for the top five, and Daniels' 88.2 grade on passes of 20 air yards or more is not too far off the pace to think he might challenge for that spot or any other for that matter.
BREAKING INTO THE GROUP
Of course, some of the names in last year's top five are no surprise, because it has just become part of what they do.
PFF evaluated the top five deep passing grades over the last three seasons, and Smith and Allen were both present there just as they were in 2024 alone.
Burrow is also in that top five along with Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys.
When we discuss where Daniels can continue to refine his game after arguably the best start a rookie quarterback has had in the NFL, this is one area. But it isn't just a Daniels thing, of course. As we pointed out with other teams, having an offense with weapons across the field and at every level helps a ton. Clearly, the Commanders are aware of this, and have taken steps to try and ensure Daniels is supported, and surrounded, in the best ways possible.
The fact that Daniels and the Washington offense can get better at hitting big plays after finishing fifth in scoring last year is something that should have every fan excited to see what happens, and opposing teams terrified of the same.
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