Denver Broncos' One Big Question: Will 2025 Mark Bo Nix's Elevation To the Elite?

Nix called his own protections, he made full-field reads against shifting defenses, and he understood what those defenses were doing better than some quarterbacks who have been in the league for half a decade, so no worries there. It would ultimately be up to how well Nix could match his athleticism and his acumen against defenses the likes of which he'd never seen before. 

Overall, it went pretty well. In his rookie season, Nix completed 389 of 589 passes for 3,919 yards, 30 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and a passer rating of 93.3. Jayden Daniels of the Washington Commanders was the only member of the 2024 draft class to outperform Nix in most major categories, and as Daniels had what may have been the greatest rookie quarterback season in pro football history, we'll give Nix a pass on that one.

Now, as Nix comes into his second season, the Broncos are excited about growing past the things that bedeviled him as a first-year player. Payton has already seen improvements. 

“Less pause, less hesitation with the play call in the huddle," the coach said on June 12, regarding how Nix's development shows in practice. "Less pause, less hesitation in the pocket. He’s playing fast, and again protecting the ball. He’s hard to sack. He was hard to sack in college. You’re seeing him practice faster with more confidence.”

Left tackle Garett Bolles is even more excited about his quarterback, and what he can do in 2025. 

“He came in the league ready to rock and roll," Bolles said on June 10 of Nix. "You’ve all seen it. I don’t have to say much about that. The dude is a freak, and he’s so composed and he’s so calm. He’s just a smart dude. He knows exactly where the ball’s going to go. He can read defenses. He’s calm and composed in the huddle. When you think a rookie comes in and leads a team, sometimes they get the jitters or sometimes they get nervous, but that dude never had that. I think it just speaks volumes of how many offensive snaps he took in college, and coming in here and just being a leader and who he is. He’s the type of person that knows what he believes and what he stands up to believe in. He’s never going to go away from that. I think that’s what separates him from everybody else, is who he is as a person. The demeanor and the work ethic he has is what separates him.”

From a tools perspective, Nix has everything you want. He was by far the NFL's most productive rookie quarterback with deep passes last season, which reflects on both his arm talent and knowledge of when to turn the ball loose. Nix completed 32 of 77 passes of 20 or more air yards for 975 yards, nine touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 106.1. Only four NFL quarterbacks (Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts) had higher passer ratings on deep passes. 

Perhaps the most impressive deep pass Nix completed in 2024 was the 93-yard touchdown pass to receiver Marvin Mims Jr. in a 41-32 win over the Cleveland Browns in Week 13. Not only did Nix correctly eye the Browns' coverage, which was inverted and very different post-snap from what they were originally showing, but he also made an absolute banger of a tight-window throw right on time to make the big play happen.

Jayden Daniels was the league's best rookie quarterback when pressured last season,  but Nix wasn't far behind. When disrupted, Nix completed 71 of 145 passes for 872 yards, six touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 69.2. Payton used Nix on the move to alleviate a lot of pressure, and outside the pocket, Nix completed 67 of 113 passes for 810 yards, eight touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 93.9. Only Patrick Mahomes (125) had more dropbacks that led to throws outside the pocket last season than Nix's 124, and Mahomes had to go all the way to the Super Bowl to do it. 

Of course, there's also work to be done, or Nix would already be a top-5 quarterback. Two-deep coverage, which most quarterbacks are worse against, has been an issue. Nix threw six of his interceptions against Cover-2, Cover-4, or Cover-6 last season, and that tied him for the NFL's third-most, behind C.J. Stroud with nine, and Patrick Mahomes, Sam Darnold, and Kirk Cousins with seven.

Nix tied for the league lead in interceptions against Cover-2 with five along with Stroud, and there was a common thread in those picks. When Nix had two deep safeties and dropping linebackers at the same time, something about that made his head explode. There would be an extra hitch in his process more often than not, and the quicker decisiveness tended to evaporate. 

“That’s a great question, a very deep question," Nix said after Denver's 31-13 Week 13 win over the Indianapolis Colts, a solid victory despite Nix's three picks, two of which came against Cover-2. He had been asked how he gets past interceptions without letting them affect him. 

"The first one, it happens. It happens fast. Whatever. The second one happens. It wasn’t a very good throw, so you get over there and you’re like, ‘What am I doing?’ That was a bad play. Then the third one, the guy jumped it [and] honestly made a really good defensive play. I was like, ‘Was I late? What could I have done differently?’ I thought sometimes those guys make good plays. Regardless, that’s three. It gets to where you feel like, ‘Every time I throw it, is it going to be picked?’ You start having those mental thoughts, but it’s challenging. 

"It’s probably the toughest part of our position, because you know what you’re capable of. You know the read. You know your footwork, how to go through it. Then you just have to keep from being gun-shy. Don’t let one turn into another false vision, and just see things that aren’t actually there. I felt like I saw the game well today, but that didn’t keep me from not turning the ball over. So what is it? I have to get back to the sideline and regroup. I feel like the guys over there do a great job of keeping me encouraged and reminding me that it’s a long game, ‘Go out there and do what you do.’ 

"I’m not going to lie—it’s tough. You start getting a little bit in your head and you start questioning, ‘Am I actually seeing it? What was that?’ So it’s tough, but I feel like everybody goes through it. The ones that can get out of it and finish the game and win and not let it dictate the outcome of the game. That’s usually when you find some maturity and you find some growth. I just have to keep continuing to do that. Unfortunately, it’s not the first time I’ve thrown three interceptions in a game. Hopefully it’s the last, but probably football will tell you it’s not going to be if you play it long enough. You just have to move on to the next play and get the next completion.”

Nix did throw three touchdown passes in that game, so even the "bad days" in Year 1 had more than enough good moments. 

Regardless of the things to improve, Nix has a very solid structure around him. Denver's receivers aren't world-beaters, but it's a solid group, and free-agent signing Evan Engram gives Nix a great security blanket underneath and in the red zone at the tight end position. The offensive line is above-average, and the run game with the addition of free agent J.K. Dobbins and second-round pick R.J. Harvey should be very dynamic. The Broncos ranked 16th in Offensive DVOA in 2024 even with a quarterback getting his feet wet, and it should bump up from the middle of the pack.

Add in the fact that the Broncos already had a top-5 defense in 2024, and this looks like a team that could go much deeper in the postseason than it did last season with the 31-7 wild-card round thrashing at the hands of the Buffalo Bills. 

It's all up to Nix to make the second-year leap. Based on the evidence, it would be tough to bet against him.