DeVonta Smith may not have lived up to lofty expectations in 2023 or 2024, but a deeper dive into his production reveals a reliable WR2 with untapped upside heading into 2025. With improved health, consistent target volume, and a potentially more pass-heavy Eagles offense, Smith is shaping up to be one of fantasy football’s best draft-day bargains.
DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles
In 2022, Smith's opportunity grew by over 30%, resulting in an exceptional year (95/1,196/7 on 136 targets). He caught 69.9% of his chances while being an impact player from Week 15 to Week 17 (5/126, 8/113/2, and 9/115) when fantasy championships were on the line. He gained over 100 yards in three other matchups (8/169/1, 5/102/1, and 7/100).
His season started with a goose egg on four targets, with emptiness in four other contests (3/17, 5/23, 2/22, and 2/36). Over his final 12 starts (including the postseason), Smith had 70 catches for 951 yards and six touchdowns on 105 targets. He ranks 9th in wide receiver scoring (255.60 fantasy points).
Smith gave the fantasy market a disappointing year in 2023, but he still finished 19th in wide receiver scoring (228.60 fantasy points) in PPR formats. His best play came in four games (4/131/1, 7/106/1, 9/96/1, and 8/148). By adding back his playoff stats (8/148), Smith, in essence, had almost the same year (89/1,214/7 – 252.40 fantasy points) as the previous year. His catch rate (71.8) pushed higher, with a bump in his yards per catch (13.6 – 12.6 in 2022).
From Week 3 to Week 7, Smith only had 21 catches for 205 yards (9.8 yards per catch) on 35 targets while averaging only 8.30 fantasy points in PPR formats. He upped his fantasy output to 17.66 FPPG from Week 8 to Week 16. An ankle injury in Week 17 led to Smith missing the final game of the regular season.
The Eagles were without the services of Smith for four games last season due to a concussion, a lingering hamstring issue, and a day of rest (wrist) in Week 18. He opened the year with a floor of seven catches in three games (7/84, 7/76/1, and 7/79) on 28 combined targets. From Week 6 to Week 11, Smith had six targets or fewer in five matchups, leading to two playable outcomes (6/85/1 and 4/87/1).
Philadelphia upped his opportunity in his final four contests (4/37/1, 11/110/1, 6/51, and 6/120/2) after missing two games. Smith had four catches in all four playoff games (16/190/1 on 17 targets) despite only having five targets in one matchup. His postseason outcomes, added to 13 regular games, essentially added up to a full year of starts (84/1,024/9 on 106 targets) or an upper-tier WR2 in PPR formats.
DeVonta Smith 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
The perception of fade in Smith’s game and chances in 2025 led to him ranking 25th at wide receiver this summer. I see a buying opportunity, while understanding the Eagles could throw the ball more this year. He should be treated as though his floor is an 80/1,000/7 season, creating some value in his early price point.