DRAFT SURPRISE? Tyler Warren Emerging as Shock Pick for Bears at No. 10

The idea with drafting a player in the top 10 is to make sure he's a real talent matched up with an obvious need.

Best player available is fine for a team coming off of a Super Bowl but teams like Ben Johnson's Bears, who are trying for rapid turnarounds, will require instant contributions.

It's why no one should discount the possibility of a trade up to draft running back Ashton Jeanty, but it's far more likely the player who can't be ignored in the Bears' case is the one chosen in Mel Kiper's last mock draft.

That player would be Penn State tight end Tyler Warren.

There are too many factors working on Warren's side to think they wouldn't select him at No. 10, although it's entirely possible another team drafting ahead of them would be interested. The Jets and Saints come to mind here.

The main reason Warren wouldn't be tight end overkill for the Bears is his ability to play a different position than Cole Kmet does. Kmet is the Y-tight end, or in-line, while Warren would be the U or a move-tight end. He would be all over the field, unlike Kmet.

Johnson's creativity would explode devising ways to use a weapon capable of numerous contributions, including wildcat quarterback.

During ESPN's telecast discussing Kiper's mock draft, this pick even had the backing of one former player often critical of past Bears picks. That would be Dan Orlovsky, who last year said they should take Jayden Daniels and not Caleb Williams.

Orlovsky cited skills here that make Warren unique.

"He's my second-favorite player in the draft outside of Travis Hunter," Orlovsky said. "And if you're the Bears, your ecstatic about this pick.

"He is so similar to Trey McBride for me. You talk about the yards after catch. I think his yards after the catch are so important. I think he owns the middle of the field. He's a little bit different than (Michigan TE Colston) Loveland because they didn't utilize him a ton in one-on-one situations."

This doesn't mean Warren struggles in one-on-one situations, just that he didn't get to face a lot of them. When he did ... "He makes some ridiculous jaw-dropping catches," Orlovsky said. "We've seen a lot of them from Travis Hunter. This guy has a handful of them, if not more from this past season."

Orlovsky didn't label Loveland a waste of a first-round pick, either.

"I think both of these young men at tight end, both him and Colston Loveland, are going to be fantastic pros," Orlovsky said. "Tyler Warren, I think, can't miss when it comes to that position."

Ryan Clark, in the same segment, seconded Warren as a player the Bears should take and backed Kiper.

"Man, Tyler Warren is an absolute freak show," Clark said. "I don't care what he runs the 40 in, I know he can play football. And not only can he play football, he can play every position on the offense where you want to put a football into somebody's hands."

Warren ended up playing some wildcat quarterback because he had played quarterback in high school.

Johnson used 12-personnel packages (two tight ends) 32.2% of the time last year according to the analytical website Sumer Sports, and that was third-highest total. He did this with Brock Wright at the other tight end opposite Sam LaPorta. Wright has averaged 14 catches a year in four seasons.

Consider then what Johnson could do with a tight end who led all players at his position in catches/target percentage in 2024 in Kmet, and also a move-tight end target like Warren.

"He's the definition of a football player," Johnson said about Warren to Adam Hoge of CHGO. Johnson said Tyler Warren film convinced defensive coordinator Dennis Allen he would be a real headache to defend.

The NFL Mock Draft Data Base had Warren as the most likely Bears pick based off mock drafts on the internet, but has revised this now. Instead, they have the Colts selecting Warren at No. 14 on 35% of mock drafts with the Bears picking Kelvin Banks but on only 15% of mock drafts.

It's easy to see Warren being the most immediately impactful pick the Bears could select in Round 1 at No. 10, and maybe only slightly less impactful than Jeanty.

A guard/tackle at that point in the draft has become a less urgent need and it's difficult to see how one could ever make a bigger difference to Johnson and the offense than Warren.